USDJPY has been showing calculated signs of bearish intent — but not the kind of drop beginners should rush into.
Here’s what I’m seeing:
On the 1H timeframe, an M-structure formed between Thursday and Friday, triggering early bearish sentiment.
However, zooming out to the 4H, just above this M lies a clean liquidity pool (resting buy stops) and a Bearish Order Block (OB) — right at the origin of the last aggressive move down.
This OB sits directly above the previous week range, and interestingly, it’s also the exact candle that broke the range structure.
This tells me something powerful:
The M on the 1H was likely a trap, luring in early sellers before the market grabs liquidity and delivers a true mitigation into the 4H OB.
So what am I expecting?
Early week manipulation (Monday–Tuesday):
Price may break above Friday’s high, sweeping liquidity and filling inefficiencies.
Mitigation into the 4H OB:
If price taps this zone and rejects with momentum (watch for bearish engulfing, M structure, or FVG on 15min/1H), I’ll prepare for a calculated short setup.
Potential mid-to-late week sell-off:
If confluence aligns post-OB rejection, expect price to target previous internal lows or the base of the previous week range.
⚠️ Risk Note — Read Carefully:
This is not financial advice.
Although my bias is bearish based on multi-timeframe confluence, news flow, liquidity behavior, and smart money concepts, every trader should conduct their own analysis before entering a position.
Don’t get trapped by early M-patterns.
Be patient. Let the market show its hand, then respond — not react.
Trade smart. Protect capital. Master patience.
Here’s what I’m seeing:
On the 1H timeframe, an M-structure formed between Thursday and Friday, triggering early bearish sentiment.
However, zooming out to the 4H, just above this M lies a clean liquidity pool (resting buy stops) and a Bearish Order Block (OB) — right at the origin of the last aggressive move down.
This OB sits directly above the previous week range, and interestingly, it’s also the exact candle that broke the range structure.
This tells me something powerful:
The M on the 1H was likely a trap, luring in early sellers before the market grabs liquidity and delivers a true mitigation into the 4H OB.
So what am I expecting?
Early week manipulation (Monday–Tuesday):
Price may break above Friday’s high, sweeping liquidity and filling inefficiencies.
Mitigation into the 4H OB:
If price taps this zone and rejects with momentum (watch for bearish engulfing, M structure, or FVG on 15min/1H), I’ll prepare for a calculated short setup.
Potential mid-to-late week sell-off:
If confluence aligns post-OB rejection, expect price to target previous internal lows or the base of the previous week range.
⚠️ Risk Note — Read Carefully:
This is not financial advice.
Although my bias is bearish based on multi-timeframe confluence, news flow, liquidity behavior, and smart money concepts, every trader should conduct their own analysis before entering a position.
Don’t get trapped by early M-patterns.
Be patient. Let the market show its hand, then respond — not react.
Trade smart. Protect capital. Master patience.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.