USD/JPY Poised for a Bearish Reversal: Key Zone Retest in Focus
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USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Move Anticipated After Key Zone Retest
The USD/JPY currency pair has been exhibiting intriguing price action recently, providing a clear roadmap for traders looking to capitalize on its movements. Let’s break down the current market structure and what it implies for future price direction.
Market Structure Overview
The pair has been in a sustained bullish trend, showcasing strength with higher highs and higher lows. However, a key pattern recently emerged:
1. Equal High Formation: The bullish momentum saw the pair form an equal high, signaling potential exhaustion in buying pressure at a significant resistance zone.
2. Neckline Break: Following this, the price broke below a crucial neckline, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
3. Retest and Second Equal High: After breaking the neckline, the price retested the zone and formed another equal high on the neckline, suggesting a strong resistance level and a lack of bullish continuation.
Current Price Action
The second equal high led to a decisive breakout below the neckline, confirming the bearish intent. However, in typical price action behavior, the market appears to be setting up for a retest of the broken zone before continuing its downward trajectory.
Projected Next Move
Based on this structure:
A retracement to the recently broken zone is highly likely. This retest would serve as a confirmation of the shift from support to resistance.
Following the retest, a strong bearish move is anticipated as sellers regain control and drive the pair lower.
Trading Implications
For traders:
1. Look for Confirmation: Wait for a clear retest of the broken zone and observe for bearish rejection signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or wicks rejecting higher prices.
2. Set Target: 150.749 while stops should be positioned above the retest zone to account for false breakouts.
3. Risk Management: As always, ensure proper risk management to mitigate losses in case the market moves against the setup.
Conclusion
The USD/JPY pair is showing classic signs of a potential bearish reversal. While the recent equal high and neckline break provide strong technical signals, it is essential to stay patient and wait for a proper retest before entering short positions. Traders should keep an eye on the zone around the neckline for confirmation of bearish momentum.
This setup, if validated, could present a lucrative opportunity for those looking to ride the bearish wave.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.