Updated

Long USDJPY - Anticipating Dissappointing US Data

Based on my statistics, the string of US data release will be dissappointing and the market so far sort of agree. The reason I want to go Long USDJPY is because if the market has priced in weakness and it match, there won't be much selling takes place. On the other if any of these data manage to surprise to the upside, I will be very happy.

Why USDJPY? The strongest pair thus far is USDJPY and it's actually more of JPY move, if US data is as I expected them to be, USDJPY can have the next leg.

TP is 111.92, SL is 110.5, I'm in half now and another halfif it retrace a bit to 111 round level

Note

So my trade is roughly break-even. I was not at the desk but the data came out as expected. No surprise to me what I do regret though was I'm not there to take advantage of the initial retracement and add to my position.

I will most likely hold this trade to end of day. Whether I will keep it over weekend depends on how the equity market does then. Also since the market has been selling off JPY this week, I'm quite reluctant hold a Short JPY trade over weekend.

Note

There is so much to say about this trade. I cut 1/2 position coming into the weekend, the decision to offload some event risk (North Korea/Trump..whatever could have happened).

I intended to add 1/2 back at Asian open on Monday but then I was too busy with works so I missed it. I had to hold through all the Tuesday data release which I expected to be a good turn out for USD.

I was very well positioned for the FOMC meeting and yet....my stop was hit and I was taken out just at break even. My stop was 111.11 and the lowest print in my platform was 111.098 - I can't believe I can be so unlucky there.

The thing is I am partially claimed too since I was too eager to protect a tiny profit and moved my SL to break even. What I could have done differently is to TP some profit of when I had the chance to and keep a wider stop, anticipating more volatility during the key event. This is a very painful exp and I'd likely beat myself a long time after this.

vietbach1990

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vietbach1990