Highest probability FX trade right now
As of October 1st 2016, the Norwegian Krona against the Swiss Frank is unquestionably one of the highest probability trades I currently see in the FX market, if not the highest probability trade on a weekly closing basis. TradingView is not giving me permission to set-up a NOK/CHF cross, so instead I set-up the USDNOK/USDCHF, which neutralizes the US dollar in the equation.
Attached below is the chart of CADCHF, which likely signals some form of a bottom. I analyze the Canadian dollar because of its correlation with crude oil, since the correlation with oil and Norway is high as well. Looking at the NOKCAD, I see a potential breakdown in the Cad against the Nok, but far too much pressure in the $6 level to be really interested in the trade. Now let's look at the Russian Ruble - also highly correlated with oil. For now, Rubles are presenting a stronger outlook than Cad dollars - see third chart below. So let's look at NOK/RUB - the cross between these two will likely be in a long term consolidation. Lastly, let's look at Norway's currency against gold. The Norwegian Krona just broke a major weekly pennant.
CADCHF
Norway against Canada
Russia against Canada
Norway against Russia
Norway against Gold
Attached below is the chart of CADCHF, which likely signals some form of a bottom. I analyze the Canadian dollar because of its correlation with crude oil, since the correlation with oil and Norway is high as well. Looking at the NOKCAD, I see a potential breakdown in the Cad against the Nok, but far too much pressure in the $6 level to be really interested in the trade. Now let's look at the Russian Ruble - also highly correlated with oil. For now, Rubles are presenting a stronger outlook than Cad dollars - see third chart below. So let's look at NOK/RUB - the cross between these two will likely be in a long term consolidation. Lastly, let's look at Norway's currency against gold. The Norwegian Krona just broke a major weekly pennant.
CADCHF
Norway against Canada
Russia against Canada
Norway against Russia
Norway against Gold
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