The technical analysis: USDRUB
The mid-term technical analysis of the USDRUB pair looks very explicit: a confident uptrend. Perhaps the only thing that stands in the way of the pair is resistance 69-70, overcoming of which opens the way for the pair to growth at least 75 (the area of consolidation of the panic time of the beginning of 2016), but in general the most logical synopsis is to re-test historical highs in area 82.
But back to the rationale for the uptrend and its dominance in the price dynamics of the USDRUB pair.
Certain consolidation was observed in 2016 - at the beginning of 2018, but after spring 2018, when the fast average crossed the slow bottom-up, we can talk about a new phase of the upward movement cycle. From then until now, the fast and slow average look up and stay away from each other what is clearly indicate the dominance of buyers in the market.
Trend indicators, which ADX and MACD can be classified, are also pretty straightforward in its statements. MACD is above zero, and the ADX line is growing, and the DM + line is above the DM- line, and these lines diverge, indicating that the trend is developing dynamically and is still far from exhaustion.
Regarding the fundamental analysis, the decline in oil prices by 35% has so far been ignored by the ruble. That is, a fundamental divergence has emerged, which, in any case, must be worked out, given the total dependence of the Russian economy on hydrocarbon prices.
Don’t also forget about political risks and internal instability in Russia. The number of dissatisfied with power is growing. The fridge beats TV. Recent social polls in this regard are extremely unpleasant for the current government.
We can recall the dismissal of the head of Rosstat and massive frauds with statistics in the country. That is, even those figures that are in essence drawn now and the authority has recognized this, dismissing the head of Rosstat.
Do not forget about the setbacks of auctions for the placement of OFZs.
Regarding the budget surplus, it has a purely "steroid" character - the result of high oil prices in 2018 instead of the development of the economy as a whole.
Overall, everything points in favor of the mid-term growth of the USDRUB pair. The last barrier to this growth is resistance 69-70. It capture will open the way for the pair to grow to area 75-82. In this case, we note that this is not the limit of increase.
But back to the rationale for the uptrend and its dominance in the price dynamics of the USDRUB pair.
Certain consolidation was observed in 2016 - at the beginning of 2018, but after spring 2018, when the fast average crossed the slow bottom-up, we can talk about a new phase of the upward movement cycle. From then until now, the fast and slow average look up and stay away from each other what is clearly indicate the dominance of buyers in the market.
Trend indicators, which ADX and MACD can be classified, are also pretty straightforward in its statements. MACD is above zero, and the ADX line is growing, and the DM + line is above the DM- line, and these lines diverge, indicating that the trend is developing dynamically and is still far from exhaustion.
Regarding the fundamental analysis, the decline in oil prices by 35% has so far been ignored by the ruble. That is, a fundamental divergence has emerged, which, in any case, must be worked out, given the total dependence of the Russian economy on hydrocarbon prices.
Don’t also forget about political risks and internal instability in Russia. The number of dissatisfied with power is growing. The fridge beats TV. Recent social polls in this regard are extremely unpleasant for the current government.
We can recall the dismissal of the head of Rosstat and massive frauds with statistics in the country. That is, even those figures that are in essence drawn now and the authority has recognized this, dismissing the head of Rosstat.
Do not forget about the setbacks of auctions for the placement of OFZs.
Regarding the budget surplus, it has a purely "steroid" character - the result of high oil prices in 2018 instead of the development of the economy as a whole.
Overall, everything points in favor of the mid-term growth of the USDRUB pair. The last barrier to this growth is resistance 69-70. It capture will open the way for the pair to grow to area 75-82. In this case, we note that this is not the limit of increase.
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