COT CURRENCY REPORT
AUD, NZD & CAD:
Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 13th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, even after the recent push higher in the likes of the NZD and AUD.
For this week the majority of the attention will turn towards the Canadian Dollar where we will have the BOC's policy and rate decision. Just two weeks ago the expectations that the BOC will look to start tapering their QE program was set in stone, but recent rising virus cases and lockdown restrictions has seen some participants push back these expectations.
Apart from that, the past few sessions the overall global risk outlook has been the main external driver for the AUD & NZD and without any major surprises we would expect the two antipodeans to be largely driven by the risk outlook.
JPY & CHF & USD:
With the US10Y pressured in the past week the JPY was quite resilient among major currencies despite overall positive risk tones. As yields find some equilibrium it will be interesting to see whether the JPY takes its cue more from risk sentiment in the weeks ahead as the strong inverse correlation between US10Y & JPY has been moving lower recently.
The USD once again saw downside despite further solid econ data and largely followed US10Y's path lower. However, it was quite noticeable that the Dollar didn't fall further on Thursday despite US10Y pushing lower with quite some pace.
Friday did see US10Y finding some reprieve alongside the USD. Even though the Dollar's med-term bias remains titled to the downside, we should keep in mind that yields have not been the only driver for the Dollar over the past few weeks as the overall reflation narrative remains a big focus as well.
As the USD's slide coincides with lots of exuberance in equities and VIX treading water on key support, we do need to keep a close eye on overall risk sentiment for some potential mean reversion at some stage, and if equities do have some short-term deleveraging it could see some USD safe haven flows.
GBP:
The two favourites among the FX majors from a fundamental outlook point of view has been the CAD and the GBP, and it's both of them that has been the weakest among the majors over the past two weeks.
Whenever we see price action like this we need to ask ourselves whether anything has changed that could jeopardize the fundamental outlook, and despite some initial concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the main drivers for expecting further upside in the Pound is still intact.
However, we also don't want to catch falling knives. In the coming sessions, either waiting for price action to confirm the bullish trend is back in focus or waiting for a positive catalyst to driver the Pound higher seems like the best course of action in the short-term.
EUR:
The upside in the EUR this past two weeks has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus.
Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany".
However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up.
But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 April 2021.
Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 13th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, even after the recent push higher in the likes of the NZD and AUD.
For this week the majority of the attention will turn towards the Canadian Dollar where we will have the BOC's policy and rate decision. Just two weeks ago the expectations that the BOC will look to start tapering their QE program was set in stone, but recent rising virus cases and lockdown restrictions has seen some participants push back these expectations.
Apart from that, the past few sessions the overall global risk outlook has been the main external driver for the AUD & NZD and without any major surprises we would expect the two antipodeans to be largely driven by the risk outlook.
JPY & CHF & USD:
With the US10Y pressured in the past week the JPY was quite resilient among major currencies despite overall positive risk tones. As yields find some equilibrium it will be interesting to see whether the JPY takes its cue more from risk sentiment in the weeks ahead as the strong inverse correlation between US10Y & JPY has been moving lower recently.
The USD once again saw downside despite further solid econ data and largely followed US10Y's path lower. However, it was quite noticeable that the Dollar didn't fall further on Thursday despite US10Y pushing lower with quite some pace.
Friday did see US10Y finding some reprieve alongside the USD. Even though the Dollar's med-term bias remains titled to the downside, we should keep in mind that yields have not been the only driver for the Dollar over the past few weeks as the overall reflation narrative remains a big focus as well.
As the USD's slide coincides with lots of exuberance in equities and VIX treading water on key support, we do need to keep a close eye on overall risk sentiment for some potential mean reversion at some stage, and if equities do have some short-term deleveraging it could see some USD safe haven flows.
GBP:
The two favourites among the FX majors from a fundamental outlook point of view has been the CAD and the GBP, and it's both of them that has been the weakest among the majors over the past two weeks.
Whenever we see price action like this we need to ask ourselves whether anything has changed that could jeopardize the fundamental outlook, and despite some initial concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the main drivers for expecting further upside in the Pound is still intact.
However, we also don't want to catch falling knives. In the coming sessions, either waiting for price action to confirm the bullish trend is back in focus or waiting for a positive catalyst to driver the Pound higher seems like the best course of action in the short-term.
EUR:
The upside in the EUR this past two weeks has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus.
Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany".
However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up.
But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead.
*This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 April 2021.
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