Higher Local Highs for USDT.D

In a previous post regarding USDT.D my updated 1:0.786 overshoot ratio target was reached. My original TA suggested that the 3 wave correction may be complete when my target was tagged.

After further research into MSTR; the structure does not appear to have completed its correctional phase. Being that MSTR is a leading indicator for BTC and TOTAL; this could suggest that USDT.D may continue to head on up, consequently driving many assets to lower local lows and quite a few to all time lows. (Check out my MSTR Publish).

For USDT.D; this 3 wave correction may in fact develop into a 1:1 retracement. I would imagine that we could get a wave down from here after hitting the 0.786 overshoot and possibly find support on September 2020 resistance/support structure before making another wave up, but those details can often become a bit fuzzy, so don't take my word for it.

In the previous trend up; from March 24' to August 24', there was a fairly clean 5 waves up that provided the clues of the trend, with the 5th wave marking the top. This is not the case for this trend up being that we have a double bottom at the begging of the trend and a messy way on up.

I'll be keeping a closer eye on MSTR as this asset is strongly recommended to follow by my charting coach dRends35, and I'm also noticing that it is on other traders radars as well.

With this note; Be extra cautious out there traders and good luck!

-NOT Financial Advice-

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This broadening wedge suggests there may be a dead cat bounce ( price drop ) and a retest of the liquidity line.

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We had a recent pump; part of the process of a dead car bounce. A pump then a sudden drop.

Below I have the USDT.D chart Inverted, this is to show that this pattern looks very similar to the H&S pattern that developed right before USDT.D make a breakout toward the 1:0.618 pocket as discussed in a previous USDT.D post.

What happened then after the H&S pattern was a bear trap shake out before the pump began. Here we have the same pattern printing another shakeout.

This looks like it could make a breakout to September 2020 resistance. When looking at the chart non-inverted, this would be a drop to the September 2020 resistance.

This TA suggests that we could be getting a descent size wave up throughout the market.

Good Luck Traders.

-NOT Financial Advice-

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*Dead Cat Bounce - Not dead car bounce ... apologies.

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I was originally anticipating a drop after the shakeout, however; the declining volume could indicate that the possible breakdown lacks strong seller momentum, which might invalidate the drop and lead to a reversal.

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Price is sitting near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which often acts as strong support.

There is a longer-term ascending trendline/liquidity line that is still intact. If price holds above this trendline, there's a higher chance of a bounce instead of a drop.

Bearish Case; If volume suddenly increases and price decisively breaks below the 0.618 level, then the drop could still play out.

Bullish Case; If price holds above this support level with continued low volume, it be a SPRING (Wyckoff Shakeout), leading to a reversal and potential rally.

Volume conformation would be the key indicator here.

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An Observation Worth Noting: After looking at USDT.D chart again, I've noticed a few things I did not take into consideration before.

- The RSI level is at 83.8: It hasn't been this far up in the upper quadrant since May 2022.
- There is hidden bearish divergence when comparing the two peaks.
- There is a supply line that was tagged during the rally up that my charting pal CryptoWorld86 pointed out.

These are clues that could weaken the chances of this developing into a 1:1 correction, but as I always like say "Still Not Impossible".

-Not Advice-

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Also note: The candle structure could be developing into an evening star pattern; we would need to see the current candle develop into a more bearish structure.

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This is looking like a mini accumulation event with a potential spring. Could be retest of the upper supply line in the mix.

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This one has been a little tricky predicting waves using Wyckoff on small time frames, so i'll back away from drawing board a little bit. On a 1D chart it's printing a descending channel. Which is normally a cause building event for an eventual bullish reaction. There is room on the RSI for further movement to the down side. I have repositioned the 0.618 support window to capture the retracement compared to the whole previous wave up. Inside the GW is September 2020 resistance. This could be the area it's bound to retest.

3 days ago

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This chart pattern is developing into a bullish fractal; a high with lower equal highs on each side. There may be a wave down forming soon. This would be an 'oh so needed' wave up throughout crypto assets if this plays out.

TheGemHunter

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TheGemHunter