Long WTI - channel bottom
Updated
Technical:
Bullish case: channel bottom and severely disconnected from moving averages. We see potential closing above a down-trend for the first time in 5 weeks (above 42.96 to accomplish this). If pattern holds, find yourself at the top of the channel (~49.25) within 2.5 to 4 weeks as the spike is has historically been faster than the fall.
Bearish case: Below this channel and we may fall into "no-man's land". Could short below $42.50. Lots of resistance levels between 42.50 and 49.25.
Fundamental:
Bullish case: summer driving months, opec, saudi ipo on deck
Bearish case: continued oversupply, any build or overestimated draws could drag the price down
- I am long - 42.00 stop-loss.
Bullish case: channel bottom and severely disconnected from moving averages. We see potential closing above a down-trend for the first time in 5 weeks (above 42.96 to accomplish this). If pattern holds, find yourself at the top of the channel (~49.25) within 2.5 to 4 weeks as the spike is has historically been faster than the fall.
Bearish case: Below this channel and we may fall into "no-man's land". Could short below $42.50. Lots of resistance levels between 42.50 and 49.25.
Fundamental:
Bullish case: summer driving months, opec, saudi ipo on deck
Bearish case: continued oversupply, any build or overestimated draws could drag the price down
- I am long - 42.00 stop-loss.
Note
Update: Closing above 42.96 today (Close of 43.14) confirmed both price and RSI breakout, as we close outside both RSI and price RED trendlines. Will look to Monday to determine if this is a potential false breakout. Happy to short this below 42, but will remain bullish so long we hold the upward sloping trendline(s). Green is the preferred aggressive up-slope, as it has historically been so. However, light-blue and pink also have historical precedence, and should not be ignored as possibilities as the past often flips a coin to decide how closely it wants to repeat itself.
Good luck all and remain on the lookout for both bullish and bearish opportunities.
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