Im still favouring the Butterfly to 58-59 as its supported by an Elliotwave sequence, Crucial area is the blue line....if price closes below the blue line, Elliotwave sequence is invalidated and bat takes control... expecting an upward move in next few days, possiblty today if 44.50 holds....
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We are right on the line.....should ping up tomorrow after NFP data...4hr RSI is 18 !!!! so oversold end of 3 wave impulse pattern...should at the very least retest 46.50
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We have 2 potential outcomes from here......
Reversal at 43.03....watch price action...wait for a bottom formation.. nest to wait till after NFP data tomorrow 1.30 GMT to see which direction and go with the trend....
or
long at 42.03....completion of a bat pattern.. for TP 44.50...put stop loss a few tics under the x (the higher X on the chart)
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We closed right on the line in the sand at 43.50...so the 5 wave pattern is still valid up to 59.00......Because of the .618 retracement, Ive re-jigged the wave count...what looked like wave 1 was just a pullback...so we have just seen the retracement of wave 2....this makes sense because
1. usually wave 2 is a 50-61.8 retracement
2. wave 2 and 4 dont usually retrace the same...wave 4 should retrace 38.2 if wave 2 retraced 61.8
3. the waves should be of similar length , with wave 1 shortest....
Its the same result...we get to 59 wiith butterfly but it gives us pivot points to take some profit and add to the trade to minimise risk....
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REGARDING NFPThe charts are saying the job numbers are going to be weaker than expected, however I will hedge my positions against the worst case scenario.
I will be entering 2 long positions on oil and Gold about 1.25pm GMT and 1 short position as insurance.....
I have 3 short positions open on USDCAD...I will be entering a long position at the same time as insurance.....
If you have a trading account that allows you to take half profit then you do not need multiple positions...(I keep meaning to change mine to one that does)
After 1.30pm there should be fireworks and we end the day with a big green candle !
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Blue line I was just referring to was another blue line at 43.50 support....not the one on here...confusing I know...Trade active
We have just broken out of a channel so I've gone long at 43.73..quite a long stop loss to allow for possible volatility after NFP....Note
I closed my long from 46.20 with a small profit....My other long positions are still running from 43/44......
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Bearish Bat Pattern only valid .if price doesn't go below point A.....
So short on completion of bat at 46.37...
SL 46.52
TP 1 45.15
TP 2. 44.50
TP 3 ...let position run....
NOTE ...price may reverse at 46.05 you can trade a short here to around 45.60 or just ....ignore this move and wait for completion of the bat
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depending on price actioni will buy 45.15....
SL 45.05
TP 45.95
Trade closed: stop reached
it looks like it want to retest 44.50 which is major support....so I'm leaving it alone for nowNote
We are potentially in wave 2 (corrective wave), of wave 3 (impulse wave), of wave 5 (impulse wave) in a 5 wave move (making sense?)....wave 2 shoudnt 'close below 44.32...if it does the elliotwave and butterfly option is off the table,.....I will close my longs while still in profit...and will be looking for a shorting opportunity...Note
If bulls win...it will be via a short squeeze in my view...the support trendline will be key...
and a good shorting opportunity on 0.618 retrace
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Bearflag and trendline breakoutDont be surprised to see a quick dive to 44.60 and a rapid rise back up again...
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We hve broken the support trendline...My view is still bullish on oil, with a 61.8 retracement its usually great news to at least test the last high of 48.95 but sometimes it can form a Gartley in the opposite direction and we have to accept the fact that the bears will be looking at this potential....with a buy at 42.79...
My plan is the same 44,32 is the .618 retracement from 43.02 - 46.5....if we drop below 44.32 it tells me bears are on top....so I will be cashing in around 42.15 area based on price action.....and looking for the 42.79 buy opportunity...
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CORRECTION 44.15 cash inNote
Heres the potential bullish gartley with the X in the right place!Note
FINALLY!
this is a pot bullish gartley with the correct 0.786 final leg ...
BUY ENTRY IS 41.79!!!!!
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CORRECTION BUY IS 41.27......I cna do the complicated bit!!!
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Ive closed all longs except one....Next obvious reversal area is 43.75.......786 fib and 1.618 extension on this downward AB=CD pattern....
If we reverse here then a bounce to at least 44.32 is on.....and its not completely out of the question we still get our butterfly to (59)...but i feel its unlikely now, but will keep my long in case...
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Looking like a double bottom if it doesn't take off, in which case I will buy at 43.75....Note
I have cashed in on my long with profit at 44.60..so I have no positions in oil right now.Inventory data out tomorrow at 3.30pm...I will watch and then buy/sell with trend.
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I will trade the BREAKOUT...of this assymetrical triangle pattern
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The oil inventory data is usually Wednesdays at 3.30pm....for whatever reason they moved it to tomorrow at 4pm.....!!!!looks like continued consolidation until then...so will trade breakout tomorrow at 4pm.....
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Nice BULLISH crab pattern forming...providing we dont break above point c then buy at 45.14...should go to at least 45.30 resistance....may be a trend changer....
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.