WTI Voodoo & the Dollar Carry Trade.
Updated
My short at Friday's close...my currency wave indicates that oil is over bought. and has been since Christmas. COT reports shows new money (retail), MM, Chinese, etc.. are all long, at +seven to one (7/1), with record net positions. Both the timing and direction of the dxy/oil value wave, confirms this is a carry trade. Cheap money leveraged longs.. with little or no hedges. That side the boat is full... too full for me.
The range from spikes to dump tells me oil is only really being supported by the dollar. But there are limits to this action, and ultimately higher dollar hurts wti. Imo, we are at or near that level now. Fundamentals, why mention them.. bottom line, too much oil. Way too much. Lastly, Sine wave shows a target on 3/3/17 of 49.15
And if none of this voodoo helps.. then simply, Short 53.89 with SL of 54.43, and moving Target of 1hr./MA100 or lower. Good Luck.
The range from spikes to dump tells me oil is only really being supported by the dollar. But there are limits to this action, and ultimately higher dollar hurts wti. Imo, we are at or near that level now. Fundamentals, why mention them.. bottom line, too much oil. Way too much. Lastly, Sine wave shows a target on 3/3/17 of 49.15
And if none of this voodoo helps.. then simply, Short 53.89 with SL of 54.43, and moving Target of 1hr./MA100 or lower. Good Luck.
Trade active
-So we remain on our big short, we jumped out of our Friday short on yesterday's am spike, as expected the price moved down (with Dxy) over weekend, and our ETF (for this trade).. DWT gapped up on Monday. I am current flipped on this trade, with a small long via UCO, as I expected a bump during overnight. This happened at 3am.. again.
Funny how it happens right at a large DXY/JPY spread change. Must be nothing... Anyway plan for today, sell longs on open or first spike, I'll sell the spikes, maybe buy a dump. If so, only after a .15 move. No time for this drifty crap. WTI Price is totally supported by DXY, ... using borrowed yen. TL, Fibs, & channels will act as magnets to the nearby price. I see a good chance this could unwind by 3/3/17. Until then play the spikes until the bottom drops out.
For now will use this published chart for all swings and changes. As our big short is/has been working since the Christmas Star.. * , just before new year. And we plan on working that to sub 49. Until then will sing in out on dxy waves...
And a Copy of Sine wave.. 3/3/17 target date. Will update summery later.
Trade closed: target reached
So we are all cash. We are looking for a bounce here, but I will update with new idea over the weekend. We could open a trade today if things change .. but we see this as a zone that could turn either way.. Here is what I'm looking at today.. 50.07 - 48.63 fib range + TL. Middle of zone.
also watch DXY
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.