Oil is riding down the descending channel quite well. I feel like $13.50 could happen but maybe its time for a bounce based on everyone going short at this point. Maybe a short squeeze? I haven't really looked into short positions but I know they have been gaining for months. Assuming that we are to break up, we wouldn't see a ton of resistance until $30. I think a bounce to $25 would be the minimum. However, until we break up, the most likely scenario is down.
Personally I would wait for sub $20 to go short or above $22 to go long.
On one last note on oil production is that the Russians are rumored to be able to drill oil down to $14 a barrel before loosing money. And the theory is that they would do this to gain market share. That last bit is highly speculative information but I am throwing it out there.
This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and analyze your own trades.