Crude oil review of last week and analysis of this week
Updated
This week, crude oil received support at 74.9 and the overall rebound rebounded. The week ended with an overall decline of 4.18%, and finally closed at $77.40. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continued fluctuation of crude oil prices this week are as follows:
1. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Russia will not give up its plan to increase liquefied natural gas production to 100 million tons per year because of US sanctions.
2. Three fuel producers said Russia will completely lift its ban on diesel and gasoline exports next week, sources said
3. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: The West’s green transformation has triggered a crisis in the global oil and natural gas market. Sanctions imposed on Russian oil have had a huge impact on global energy markets, causing costs to rise. Damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline means Europe will no longer have access to cheap fuel.
4. After the United States eased sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA is negotiating with local and foreign oilfield companies to rent equipment and services to enable it to restore sluggish production;
5. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Before the end of December 2023, Russia will continue to voluntarily cut its oil supply and petroleum product exports by 300,000 barrels per day. The voluntary production reduction decision will be reviewed next month to consider further production cuts or increases in oil production;
The above factors are responsible for the continued complex and volatile trend of crude oil this week. Overall, it is the promotion of various factors that has caused the price adjustment. It has brought about chain reactions in some markets, and crude oil supply problems have led to changes in crude oil prices;
In terms of news, next week’s regular data API and EIA’s overall expectations are still more likely to be small and bullish. Due to the EIA system upgrade, the EIA will release two crude oil inventory reports at 23:30 on November 15 (including those not announced last week). (one copy), due to the current tense geopolitical environment, the overall probability is still small and bullish, and of course the possibility of repairs on both sides is not ruled out.
In addition, we need to focus on the release of OPEC's monthly crude oil market report (the specific release time of the monthly report is to be determined, usually around 18-21 o'clock on November 13, Beijing time). The follow-up of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will affect the trend of the energy market. Keep an eye on this;
The IEA releases its monthly crude oil market report. Fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. OPEC+ supply in October was higher than expected. The actual export volume of oil-producing countries increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day. In addition, Russian oil exports rose to a nearly four-month high, with average daily oil exports of nearly 3.48 million barrels; in its monthly forecast, EIA lowered the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2023 by 300,000 barrels per day. Inventories have increased significantly. In the week ending November 3, crude oil inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 980,000 barrels.
The marginal demand for crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that supply and demand will develop from a tight balance in the third quarter to a balanced supply and demand in the fourth quarter, putting crude oil prices under pressure. On the macro front, non-farm payrolls data have lowered U.S. economic growth expectations, and Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish recently. If the focus of late trading returns to the U.S. economy, which is expected to enter recession, it may suppress crude oil prices. Overall, the fundamental margin has become looser, inventories have increased more than expected, and price weakness may continue.
From a technical point of view, this time it has continued to fluctuate and bearish since it opened high on the 20th, and this week has made a low, and the latest will be next Monday's low. After that, the overall trend will continue to be bullish until the 1st or 5th, so next week From the beginning, if 74.9 does not break below, the overall trend is to continue to be bullish, and what we need to do is to close the short and add long ideas next week. The previous judgment was to be bearish to about 74, and the target has been achieved now. From a structural point of view, it is a good choice to see the current rebound to about 82, so in the later period, all short positions below 83 will be closed and harvested. U-turn is mainly bullish. Later development will be further judged. More based on the intraday strategy,
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