Updated

Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

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But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

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possible Long-term wave count

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Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

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short-term count

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any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

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break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

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there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

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The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

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break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

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The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

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also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

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Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

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is wave 3 ready to explode?

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Short-term count

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daily chart

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we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

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possible short-term counts:
either

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alternative count

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wave {iv} under way?

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wave (iv) could be a triangle

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possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

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or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

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immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

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wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

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triangle

or flat?

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triangle

or flat

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{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

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or an impulse wave {c}

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possible short-term count

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possible short-term count

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either way

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let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

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a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

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break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

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possible short-term count

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key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

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possible short-term counts

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note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

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triple zigzag?

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Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

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alternative count

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possible short-term count

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possible short-term count

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either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

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Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

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the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

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possible short term counts

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bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

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no change

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Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

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OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

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Flat

or Combination

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there are some bullish possibilities

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medium term expectations

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

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The start of a long-term bear?

by wsbza

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wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space