General plan for Oil in 2017

Updated

I think the most probable scenario for oil in the first half of 2017 is to complete wave C in some motive but choppy fashion. Ending diagonal is a perfect candidate for this move. As it totally reflects the fundamental idea of two battling forces. On one hand we have rhetorics and measures from OPEC plus seasonality in first half of the year pushing crude oil price higher. On the other hand - commercials, hedging their production at this price levels as in 2014 before the plunge. After all it seems that another wave down is inevitable. But I guess wave 5 will not take us far as a truncation often occurs following a particularly strong third wave.

I will explain why I see wave C as an ending diagonal in the next post.

Note

Some amendments have to be made to this plan. We obviously can't have 5 wave sequence in C of 4 since we had 3-wave A of 4. The map is pretty much the same, the only difference is the labelling. Smaller timeframe EW count suggest oil still has to complete wave B circled before resuming trend higher. From here I'm targeting 49.x area, as highs from previous structure on the left and 100 and 200 Daily MAs are acting as support in this area.

wayusa

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