Oil futures plunged 6% intraday on weak demand
Conflict in the Middle East has failed to sustain the oil risk premium
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil market interpreted the recent events as a step towards de-escalation, leading to a gradual receding of risk premiums in the region. Over the weekend, Israel launched air strikes on missile sites inside Iran, which Iranian authorities claimed caused limited damage. Israel's choice not to target Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, coupled with Tehran's restrained response, has led traders to view the likelihood of an immediate escalation of the conflict affecting oil supplies as low.
The easing of geopolitical tensions has brought the market's attention back to underlying demand concerns and broader economic factors that continue to weigh on oil prices.
Weak demand in Asia and Opec's production strategy
Weak global demand has become the main driver of lower crude prices. Opec + has postponed a production increase originally planned for October, rescheduling it for December to avoid pushing prices down further. The alliance now aims to add 180,000 barrels a day by 2025, gradually increasing supply to stabilize prices.
On the demand side, the expected growth in global demand, especially in Asia, has not been as strong as expected. With the spread of electric vehicles around the world, analysts warn that it may not significantly boost crude oil demand.
Outlook: Short-term bearish on weak demand signals
In the short term, oil prices appear to be under pressure from weak demand signals in key markets and little impact from the conflict in the Middle East. With major technical resistance levels and lacklustre demand weighing on the market, traders should expect a bearish outlook for oil prices unless global economic conditions improve or geopolitical tensions escalate, thereby directly threatening oil supply infrastructure. Near-term risks remain tilted toward further declines in crude oil prices as supply concerns fade and demand growth fails to keep pace with expectations.
Technical analysis
From a daily perspective, WTI crude oil futures prices, after falling to a low of $68.20 at the opening on October 18, rebounded ahead of an uptrend that began on September 10. Given the price action since then, it is clear that there are still plenty of willing buyers out there, despite the constant drumbeat of bearish fundamental news.
While the opening gap may be closed in the near future, from a risk-reward perspective, it is best to enter at a lower level when trading long, allowing stops to be placed below the session low or the September 10 uptrend for protection.
If that gap were to be filled, that would mean an initial trading target would be Friday's close of $70. After that, if the initial target level is reached, the 50 moving average and resistance above $71.67 are other targets.
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil market interpreted the recent events as a step towards de-escalation, leading to a gradual receding of risk premiums in the region. Over the weekend, Israel launched air strikes on missile sites inside Iran, which Iranian authorities claimed caused limited damage. Israel's choice not to target Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, coupled with Tehran's restrained response, has led traders to view the likelihood of an immediate escalation of the conflict affecting oil supplies as low.
The easing of geopolitical tensions has brought the market's attention back to underlying demand concerns and broader economic factors that continue to weigh on oil prices.
Weak demand in Asia and Opec's production strategy
Weak global demand has become the main driver of lower crude prices. Opec + has postponed a production increase originally planned for October, rescheduling it for December to avoid pushing prices down further. The alliance now aims to add 180,000 barrels a day by 2025, gradually increasing supply to stabilize prices.
On the demand side, the expected growth in global demand, especially in Asia, has not been as strong as expected. With the spread of electric vehicles around the world, analysts warn that it may not significantly boost crude oil demand.
Outlook: Short-term bearish on weak demand signals
In the short term, oil prices appear to be under pressure from weak demand signals in key markets and little impact from the conflict in the Middle East. With major technical resistance levels and lacklustre demand weighing on the market, traders should expect a bearish outlook for oil prices unless global economic conditions improve or geopolitical tensions escalate, thereby directly threatening oil supply infrastructure. Near-term risks remain tilted toward further declines in crude oil prices as supply concerns fade and demand growth fails to keep pace with expectations.
Technical analysis
From a daily perspective, WTI crude oil futures prices, after falling to a low of $68.20 at the opening on October 18, rebounded ahead of an uptrend that began on September 10. Given the price action since then, it is clear that there are still plenty of willing buyers out there, despite the constant drumbeat of bearish fundamental news.
While the opening gap may be closed in the near future, from a risk-reward perspective, it is best to enter at a lower level when trading long, allowing stops to be placed below the session low or the September 10 uptrend for protection.
If that gap were to be filled, that would mean an initial trading target would be Friday's close of $70. After that, if the initial target level is reached, the 50 moving average and resistance above $71.67 are other targets.
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