COVID marked the supercycle's low in oil. Since then, the price has rallied to form a [W] double zigzag consisting of (A)(B)(C).
Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal.
When completed, I believe the price will drop to 660/BBL in 2025.
The alternative is that wave [X] has ended (in blue), and the price will gradually reach an all-time high (blue C).
Clarity is likely to emerge in late 2024. If the price breaks below the [iv] wave, the odds favour $60/bbl.
If the decline from [v] occurs in a corrective fashion, we will consider changing the base case for the multi-year bullish scenario.
Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal.
When completed, I believe the price will drop to 660/BBL in 2025.
The alternative is that wave [X] has ended (in blue), and the price will gradually reach an all-time high (blue C).
Clarity is likely to emerge in late 2024. If the price breaks below the [iv] wave, the odds favour $60/bbl.
If the decline from [v] occurs in a corrective fashion, we will consider changing the base case for the multi-year bullish scenario.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.