The larger picture supports the blue case, in which wave (w) may have already been completed and we are approaching a period of rapid growth to $100 per barrel area. Such a scenario would appear more organic in the sense that wave C of (X) must hurry up; otherwise, it becomes too disproportionate to A and thus less likely.
As of now I cannot see any immediate bearish alternatives. The price would need to break below 68bbl to reconsider.