USOIL: #stayhome effect
Oil prices have dropped more than 50% in March (yearly performance is around-62,1%). Is it the end or are we going to see more downside movement?
Let's assume this is another opportunity for joining bears, based on technical analysis (thoughts) you can see on the chart.
How much lower can the price go? Can it reach the lows of 1999?
My answer is: why not?
Most of developed countries are on quarantine #stayhome and the supply wasn't cut by OPEC.
The major US indices, including DJI, S&P500 and Nasdaq, have fallen in the following order: 35%, 30% and 25%. While different sectors and industries in the US have the following yearly performance so far:
1. Energy minerals sector (931,2B MKT CAP): -58,04%, out of which e.g.:
-Coal Industry: -69,17%
-Oil & Gas production Industry: -62,67%
-Integrated oil Industry: -57,05%
-Oil Refining/Marketing: - 55,7%
2. Industrial Services Sector (515,96B MKT CAP): -36,09%, out of which e.g.:
-Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry: -60,01%
-Oil&Gas Pipelines Industry: -42,93%
3. Process Industries Sector (681,34B MKT CAP):-27,36%, out of which e.g.:
-Pulp&Paper Industry: -50,05%
-Chemicals: Major Diversified Industry: -49,87%
-Agricultural Commodities/Milling: -41,45%
4. Non-Energy Minerals Sector (476,43B MKT CAP): -25,73%, out of which e.g.:
-Steel Industry: -48,32%
-Other Metals/Minerals: -40,16%
-Aluminium: -39,87%
5. Transportation sector (569,48B MKT CAP): -23,84%, out of which e.g.:
-Airlines industy: -49,2%
6. Finance sector (6038,64B MKT CAP): -23,12%, out of which e.g.:
-Life/Health Insurance Industry: -37,69%
-Real Estate Development Industry: -37,64%
-Financial Conglomerates Industry: -34,83%
-Major Banks Industry: -31,13%
7. Consumer Services sector (1481,09B MKT CAP): -21,53%, out of which e.g.:
-Hotels/Resorts/Cruise Lines Industry: -43,78%
-Casinos/Gaming Industry: -34,22%
8. Producer Manufacturing sector (1030,45B MKT CAP): -21,02%, out of which e.g.:
-Auto Parts: OEM Industry: -34.64%
-Metal Fabrication Industry: -33,09%
-Industrial Conglomerates Industry: -31,72%
It's quite interesting when and how these industries will be able to recover, but I am quite sure it's a great opportunity to start analyzing particular companies and building portfolio with these businesses.
This is going to be my next step...
//
I would very much appreciate if you would support my work by hitting like.)
Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Let's assume this is another opportunity for joining bears, based on technical analysis (thoughts) you can see on the chart.
How much lower can the price go? Can it reach the lows of 1999?
My answer is: why not?
Most of developed countries are on quarantine #stayhome and the supply wasn't cut by OPEC.
The major US indices, including DJI, S&P500 and Nasdaq, have fallen in the following order: 35%, 30% and 25%. While different sectors and industries in the US have the following yearly performance so far:
1. Energy minerals sector (931,2B MKT CAP): -58,04%, out of which e.g.:
-Coal Industry: -69,17%
-Oil & Gas production Industry: -62,67%
-Integrated oil Industry: -57,05%
-Oil Refining/Marketing: - 55,7%
2. Industrial Services Sector (515,96B MKT CAP): -36,09%, out of which e.g.:
-Oilfield Services/Equipment Industry: -60,01%
-Oil&Gas Pipelines Industry: -42,93%
3. Process Industries Sector (681,34B MKT CAP):-27,36%, out of which e.g.:
-Pulp&Paper Industry: -50,05%
-Chemicals: Major Diversified Industry: -49,87%
-Agricultural Commodities/Milling: -41,45%
4. Non-Energy Minerals Sector (476,43B MKT CAP): -25,73%, out of which e.g.:
-Steel Industry: -48,32%
-Other Metals/Minerals: -40,16%
-Aluminium: -39,87%
5. Transportation sector (569,48B MKT CAP): -23,84%, out of which e.g.:
-Airlines industy: -49,2%
6. Finance sector (6038,64B MKT CAP): -23,12%, out of which e.g.:
-Life/Health Insurance Industry: -37,69%
-Real Estate Development Industry: -37,64%
-Financial Conglomerates Industry: -34,83%
-Major Banks Industry: -31,13%
7. Consumer Services sector (1481,09B MKT CAP): -21,53%, out of which e.g.:
-Hotels/Resorts/Cruise Lines Industry: -43,78%
-Casinos/Gaming Industry: -34,22%
8. Producer Manufacturing sector (1030,45B MKT CAP): -21,02%, out of which e.g.:
-Auto Parts: OEM Industry: -34.64%
-Metal Fabrication Industry: -33,09%
-Industrial Conglomerates Industry: -31,72%
It's quite interesting when and how these industries will be able to recover, but I am quite sure it's a great opportunity to start analyzing particular companies and building portfolio with these businesses.
This is going to be my next step...
//
I would very much appreciate if you would support my work by hitting like.)
Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
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