Here comes the summer swell... Big boards are getting wet.
Updated
No time today for the full game.. Running nuts on other issue. New Shack in the future... Thanks to last summers bitchn ride. Hit the surf today... Short for a big ride. I see a few newbes... Very few old salts. Spring head faked many...
More later... For now just logging strokes. Short at 46.50..first batch. 25% batch size.
More later... For now just logging strokes. Short at 46.50..first batch. 25% batch size.
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Sometimes you need to go past the candles and remember these patterns are, as reactive as predictive... The noise from the machine arrives in waves, and getting in tune can be a sweet song. But the world has it's own vibe, and events direct the main wave. Look to the tide, way past the shoreline foam.These White guys are representative of the US play.. Not just in rig count and inventory.. But in banking, credit, cap/ex, and jobs. History doesn't repeat... But I rhymes. So.. Is this decoupling a sign? Is it going to react or is it predicting the world's harmonics.
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Great day for the rhino hunter, haven't hung that far over since last year. Hoping for a summer swell. We added to our shorts but the break was too quick to close the store.. So we remain ready to push some more juice out the back. About 30% into our full short. Tomorrow will squeeze a few paddlepus off the break, so we expect a roll before the weekend. Most of the Hampton boys and the blackbox crews have no stumping for this weekend's weather. 8%-10% days ahead.... If so we will use the hump to add to our shorts.We remain short .... Mind the foam.
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We are good and wet now.. fully halfway into our tube.. 50% of our coin is now on the short side. But today will not be the end-over many fear... and others pray for. Friday action gets filled with paddlepus whom have no appetite for hauling a short on their vacation. We'll look for a bump to add to our shorts... We remain short for the road trip....
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Here we are at the peak of family truckster season, when all the sheep are on the move, but we see the tide breaking at levels far below suppliers needs. Short of a real war, there is little hope in world utilization popping.... SA is at pre-1975 market share levels and now totally control the cost of every barrel.
Using any squeezes to add to our shorts. We are about 80% into our coin.
We remain short.
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The US exchange is at record highs, OPEC predicts higher demand and reduced inventories...., in "2017". Everything thing is great.. Life is good, bro... Pay no attention to tide. .....or, understand that this is a manipulated storm. Too many big promoters need the price above $50... Companies, Countries, political groups, both good and bad. All need it higher, and will do just about anything to get it there. But until SA decides it will allow the price higher it will not go up. In the mean time it continues to pileup in ships and tanks. We remain short, and continue to add shorts on strength.
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I will refer to last year... When was the last time oil had a positive summer? It's amazing how so many look to each wave as a vision, based on patterns in the foam. Can you calculate the size of the forest by measuring the height of a few trees? We remain short.. and expect a few 8% days ahead.
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Looking for chaos to piss on the party... Until then. We remain short with prices consolidating within the channel....
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Note
Bears repeating... This is a repeating bear... By mid June the boys know how much oil will be used throughout the summer... Even if they are wrong by 150% -200%, unless that clearly shows a big inventory hole... Well then we get another summer of falling prices. If anything... inventory is going to grow.
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To remain in the summer channel oil will need to take a break around 42. But as we have seen so many times, overruns are common when everyone sees the same tide. Lots of room for the machines to push it up, but nothing has changed ... to the better that is. We remain short. Trade active
The road to 38 seems to be slick as hell. Covered in oil , no less... I'm sure a squeeze is due. Knockout any paddlepusses that still feel there is HOPE. If the squeeze isn't a big enough to backwash ,we could slide fast.. We remain Short... Be safe.Trade active
We are adding to shorts.While talking heads say we have bottomed, we are using this as opertunity to add shorts, historical patterns aren't just technical.. Weather, driving, production flow, these all have harmonics. So I ask.. Is the world in recovery? Are things better than last year? Has SA given any clue to increasing prices??...
Big swings ahead. We are short and will be adding on strength. Be safe..
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Crazy week, drove through the Texas & Louisiana's oil alley, floods may have been a boom for Uhaul around Baton Rouge, but all operations are green, and we have oil everywhere... I mean everywhere... Headlines focus on changes in production and inventory.. MoM or maybe YoY. But step back and look at your boots... See that black stuff.... It's oil.
Pick your channel.... We see the machines throwing the curves some act early some slow their roll... But the direction seems clear to us.
We remain short and might add more shorts on any pop-ups. Be Safe...
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Our approach is this. Saudi Arabia controls the price of oil. It has for a long time, and will for the some time to come. Can it loose control?..yes. Has it lost control?..yes, but not at the moment. Currently SA has as much control as ever.. But that control is under attack. By new oil, tec, fracking, opec, but more importantly... Iran. Iran is going to quickly develop into a major player the will change the Middle East the most since post WWII. SA is not going to let Iran be an equal player at the table (opec or other) as long as they can help it. Russia and the rest of the gang are a problem as well, but Iran is the main focus. On our trade.. Why didn't we cover at 40? Well hindsight is always 20/20.. And we could have flipped the trade, but we felt channel had more legs. This isn't the first time we have made a +10% round trip on oil. But if you confident in your 3 month forecast then its a tax event you avoid.. Ha. Just kidding. But thats what swing'ing is...
We see no change in our year end target. As with last cycle, there will be plenty of opportunity to trade as range will increase as we head into the end of the month. We see oil remaining in the main down channels but the next 3weeks could be sideways as rumor, new, etc, battles fundamentals. We remain short and will add more on strength.
Be safe..
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A sustained break below 46 would signal break in the recent 30day trend. But low volumes require caution, as big ranges should be expected until the Opec meeting. Until then there will be hope. This has become a seasonal cycle over last 3yrs. Interestingly, the only engineering firms doing well in Houston are heavily into pipeline and storage. There is more paper oil than real oil... But there is a lot of real oil. Interesting openpr.com/news/353759/Need-for-Oil-Storage-Facilities-on-the-Rise-as-Global-Supply-of-Crude-Oil-Surpasses-Demand-says-TMR.html
Like the recent historic short squeeze.. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. Something that needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters.
We remain Short.. We will be closing this "published idea" but not the trade. Out shorts (averaging 47.10) remain open. This published idea was started with the Summer Cycle. Now that we are past summer peaks on consumption I want to transfer to my daily chart as the idea base. Published Ideas get too long on multi month swing trades.
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