Saudi wants production cuts, America doesn't
Although everyone is cutting down production, even SHELL, we are seeing the narrative of higher prices for longer. OPEC wants to cut beginning October 2024 until 25.
This might be for a multitude of reasons, which makes it quite unclear what the goal is. After falling demand and easing in production, my narrative is that we might see prices fall instead of rise, even though we are trying to limit supply, I think markets are going to want to lower prices as energy scarcity becomes vulnerable and volatility will rise. Geopolitical risks has not eased.
US SPR is lower than a quarter of its peak in 2021. My bet of dropping prices lies on that. As well as Trump having 70% chance of coming into office, I expect a welcoming gift from MBS giving us discounts on gas!
This might be for a multitude of reasons, which makes it quite unclear what the goal is. After falling demand and easing in production, my narrative is that we might see prices fall instead of rise, even though we are trying to limit supply, I think markets are going to want to lower prices as energy scarcity becomes vulnerable and volatility will rise. Geopolitical risks has not eased.
US SPR is lower than a quarter of its peak in 2021. My bet of dropping prices lies on that. As well as Trump having 70% chance of coming into office, I expect a welcoming gift from MBS giving us discounts on gas!
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