ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF

Long $UVXY 6x- 20x gains ahead?

Finally got the reversal I've been looking for in UVXY.

My entry was at $23 and I think we have a large move ahead of us. If we look at the chart, we have our first green flat bottomed Heikin Ashi candle.

Normally with a move like today's people are exiting puts and shorting UVXY, but I think this move is just starting and vol is about to become unpinned.

Over the coming 1-2 months, I think we can see 6x-20x gains through UVXY.

I'm looking for price to test at a minimum the $168 level and reach a potential high of $457.

I'll start taking profits in the $168-242 range and see if we can get all the way up to the top of the range.

Playing this both through a large spot position and through options.

Let's see what happens in the coming months.

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Above $29-30 and we should see a big rip higher. $44 looks like a good profit taking level for initial move. If price breaks that then $64 is the next level after.

That range is likely where I'll take profit on some of my puts. Want to see how price reacts to that region.

I think the low is likely in for now.

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Great trading today, bought at open 0DTE and already went 700%(closed).

Will likely close out my $9/20 40C at $44+ because I expect a retrace after that. Then will look for a reentry around $30-31 next week.

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I exited my VXX positions this morning at $64.

Looking to scale back in somewhere in the $30-44 range.

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Starting to scale back into some options.

I'm doing SEP 06 110C

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We're at the 200DMA so I could see a bounce happening between here and $26-30 hence why I'm starting to scale in slowly.

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I do think it's likely we get into the $26-29 hopefully tomorrow. That's where I'll go heavy into positions and might go out to 9/20

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The options and spot that I bought ended up in the positive by the EOD. Let's see if we get lower prices or if that was the start of the bounce.

That's why I wanted to start averaging in around 200DMA. If it can hold that level, then UVXY bull move intact.

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Continuing to add here in the $35 range.

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Alright, I'm fully scaled into my position.

Think that was likely the bottom. Let's see if we can get up to $457 over the next month.

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Let's see what happens here. We either bounce again here at $35 or we can continue down to $32 or $28. Those are the key levels where I'd expect a bounce.

Good places to accumulate. I still don't think the selloff is close to done despite everyone being bullish now.

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Ended up adding more today while price was in the $27 area. I expect a bounce around this level... If not, then $25 should be last support.

Let's see.

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Added
UVXY 09/06/2024 110.00 C
UVXY 09/20/2024 90.00 C

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Added more to my 9/20 90C position.

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So far looking like we got the bounce. Added 8/23 22C at open too

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We're getting close to a large move higher again...

The signs are there.

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Low timeframe inverse head and shoulders breaking out

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Closed my 8/23 22C +212%.

I have
30 UVXY 09/06/2024 60.00 C
102 UVXY 09/06/2024 110.00 C
120 UVXY 09/20/2024 90 C

Still open. Closed because not sure if the move higher continues here or if we retrace and see $22 one more time before the big move up.

I'd rather take gains when I have them with the short dated expirations and now I'll play the OTM options going forward w/ less time pressure.

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Got into the $22 range again. Now we're bouncing. Next pivot on the chart is Tuesday.

I lean bullish here.

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We may get one more retest of $22.22

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Alright bounce off support this morning. Looking like a larger move has started. Let's see what happens with NVDA earnings and if that's the catalyst for a VIX spike.

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Alright EOD update. Finally got the large move higher we were looking for. Still think this is the start of a larger move, not the end. What might change my thinking is if we form a lower high under $64, but if we get a move above that, then it is likely that ~$170 will be the next target.

I've started taking profit on some of my positions just to reduce risk, but still have sizable positions in volatility overall.

30 UVXY 09/06/2024 60.00 C (no change, in profit now +7%)
102 UVXY 09/06/2024 110.00 C (no change, down 86%)
170 UVXY 09/20/2024 90 C (sold 60 contracts +309%- now free position)
10 UVXY 09/20/2024 28.00 C (sold 4 contracts +216%- now free position)

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Looking good now for continuation higher. I added 30 contracts to UVXY 09/06/2024 60.00 C around 20 minutes ago.

Not sure if this gets hit or not, but price just retested it's breakout channel and looks ready for another move up. TBD how quickly it moves.

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Sold my 9/20 28C at open, this was kind of a mistake as I was thinking they expired tomorrow but had a few more weeks till expiry. So I opened up some 38C on the move down.

I also ended up buying back the contracts I sold on Tuesday for the
UVXY 09/20/2024 90 C @ $.28 bringing my position back to 170 contracts, was able to buy them back for a little less than 1/3 of what I bought them for so took the rest in profit.

Took some small bets on adding to tomorrow's expiry positions as well. Now let's see what happens. Current positioning:

60 UVXY 09/06/2024 60.00 C
152 UVXY 09/06/2024 110.00 C
170 UVXY 09/20/2024 90 C
4 UVXY 09/20/2024 38 C

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Likely that the 9/6 options expire worthless.

I added 5 27.5C for 9/13
I added another 40 contracts to 9/20 90C

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Update:
210 UVXY 09/20/2024 90C now +77%
5 UVXY 09/13/2024 27.5C now +150%
4 UVXY 09/20/2024 38 C + 27%
60 UVXY 09/06/2024 60.00 C -89% (will expire worthless unless we see big move by EOD)
152 UVXY 09/06/2024 110.00 C - 99% (will expire worthless unless we see big move by EOD)

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Got a flat bottomed Heikin ashi candle this week on the weekly timeframe (bullish). Not sure if we'll get a big move this week or next week, but it's coming soon.

Added:
20 UVXY 09/13/2024 43.00 C
50 UVXY 09/13/2024 46.00 C
100 UVXY 09/13/2024 50.00 C

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Upside levels I'm eyeing from here $76, $97, $170.

I lean towards this move going to at least $97. If it gets up there, I'll likely take profit there even though the move can go higher.

Looking like the move is starting now. Thinking now it'll likely play out by end of week.

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If we can break out above this $30-31 level, then vol should become unpinned and move much higher.

Next resistances up at $34,$44, $64, then the levels I shared above $76, $97, $170.

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We're sitting right at support now. There's a H&S pattern, so price needs to hold here to stay bullish.

I'll question my bias if we break down here or if we don't see a large move by end of week.

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Lots of bullish options flow coming in here for 9/27

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Alright update:
Not ideal the way we closed today. It leads me to believe there's more downside back to $22 because of the H&S breakdown. If we get down there, I'll add positions for 9/27.

Here's what I'm seeing on the chart bigger picture: Still think this move is bullish, however, it may not play out this week and may play out over the next 2 weeks instead. Hence the idea for 9/27 expiration options.

The flat bottomed candle got cancelled with the move down today. So now likely we get that next week should the end of the week have volatility move higher. I have a hard time seeing a big move taking place this week w/o a flat bottomed green candle. I don't see any previous moves that were large w/o that.

We'll have to see how price action shapes up tomorrow.

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I don't think we see all the way down to $22, it's possible, but not my base case anymore. Price action mirrors the consolidation before the large move on Aug 5.

Base case is now a sharp move down to $24.30 today, then that should trigger the next long. Hopefully from that level, we see a sustained move higher into next week and possibly the week after.

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I ended up taking a 0DTE for $558 this morning and sold it an hour ago to play the idea around vol decline.

We did get the breakdown, but still haven't hit the target of $24.30.

If it doesn't get hit today, likely to get hit tomorrow. Also, possibility of $21.87 as final target. That's the technical target of the H&S breakdown.

I want to buy those levels. I do think it's likely that we see an impulse tomorrow. Ideal scenario would be to open down and then see a bounce that forms throughout the day tomorrow.

I know everyone is bullish now with the move that took place over the past two days, but I don't see a vol decline past those levels (at least as of now). I still think we're bullish.

Either we see a big decline in markets next week or it's likely to play out before Oct 7.

Will update if I see anything new.

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Risky option play but just took 9/13 26C. Expecting a bounce here in the next 1-2 hrs.

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Support tagged. Let's see if we get a reaction now.

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Added a bit more here. Second support about to be tested at $23.72. Could be wrong on getting a move today, but we look pretty bottomed. Let's see.

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If we don't see a reaction in the next 30 minutes to an hour, then price is likely going to the bottom support at $22 and no reaction today. If this happens, then I'll open up new vol positions next week for October.

Was thinking that we would see a large move up today to $29-30, then we would fall back to $22 next week. But may not happen.

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Welp got the bounce at the level, but no continuation. Will be looking for a move to $28.16 or so next week for a trade.

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Trend looks to be bearish this week. We have a red flat topped Heikin Ashi candle on the weekly, and red candles on the 2D and 3D, green candles on the daily. Sort of mixed, but my bias is with the HTF candles. On top of that, we saw a double top rejection on the 1hr, let's see if it holds throughout the rest of the day and into FOMC. I'd love one last move down to $22 to accumulate. Still thinking we're going to see a move around the end of this month into the beginning of October.

I'm not holding any UVXY at the moment. Just going to watch the charts and have cash available if there's a move post FOMC.

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Got the bearish UVXY move post FOMC. Looking to reaccumulate UVXY options and spot towards the end of the day today. I think the squeeze higher in stocks could last throughout the day (at least the first 1/2 to 2/3 of it, if not till close). Also a possibility of it continuing into tomorrow or early next week.

I'll be traveling for the next 9 days though, so going to exit my calls in individual stocks and want to sit in a UVXY position while I'm gone.

I want to buy calls for early October either 4th or 11th expirations, potentially even out to 10/18. Will see how this move plays out throughout the day then make the call.

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Fully in a spot position now and started buying calls for 10/4 and 10/18 at $32-40 strike

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Got our first flat bottomed candle on the 1D and 2D timeframes. Macd formed a higher low and is turning up. Solid move today. Looks like we should get our larger move next week.

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Now flat bottomed Heikin ashi weekly green candle. Bullish trend.

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So far looking like we will get the large move this week. Large spike this morning on news, looks like it still has room to run on the 1hr, 2hr, 4hr timeframes.

I am expecting a high to form towards the end of this week or early next week.

Will let you know when I'm taking profits.

I have
10/4 32C
10/18 30C
10/18 40C

all which are now profitable.

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In terms of levels from here on out, I expect price to get at least to $45-50 area as first resistance, then want to see if price can break above the previous high at $65.

My bias is this move should take us up to the $98-120 area. That's where I want to take profit, but we'll have to see how the chart shapes up the rest of the week.

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Quick update: Sorry I haven't been as active. I've been traveling for the past couple of weeks. The day to take profits on the positions above was 10/7. They went up 150-250%. I cut the $30, still holding a large portion of the $40 for 10/18 (which could expire worthless, or could expire ITM). TBD on what happens the rest of this week.

My bias as of now is that we see SPY rally one more time before the real sell off/ VIX spike. I'd like to see $585-587 as the trigger to take new entries. It could happen tomorrow, or it could wait until later this week, but I think the move today was large enough to trigger one last rally up to reset RSIs on the LTF.

My entry level for new option positions will be a move in UVXY into the low $25 region ($25.17 or so). I think that level will trigger a large reaction higher.

If it happens tomorrow, I think we could see a large spike in the VIX into next week. If we don't see a move until the end of the week, then the move is likely to play out before 11/01.

I think the next two weeks are where we should see a large move play out. Then I plan to be long certain equities into November. Let's see.

I'm looking at 11/01 39Cs but will make the decision on what to actually take when I see how price action plays out the rest of the week.

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Got the equity bounce I was expecting, not sure if we get all the way up into 585-586 area. Could see this area rejecting here or around $582.50.

I've started averaging into positions again.

11/01 $40,

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Alright so far in premarket, looking like that $585-586 range is going to get hit, I'll likely add the rest of my position up in that range should we get it. Safest position here is to take 11/08 options on the call side. I'll likely add those today and add some more 11/01.

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That area on SPY got tagged and sold off. UVXY isn't going to go down further IMO. It looks like we're bottoming. I deployed the rest of my cash. Now we sit and wait.

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If we get the move higher, I think the highest probability window is between tomorrow and the 23rd. The other possibility is between the 23rd and the 30th.

I think it could be a 1-2 day large move higher. Then we should see lower volatility until December or January.

The reason I think we're going to see this move is because the higher timeframe Heikin Ashi candles are bullish. 1W, 2W. The RSIs are right on the cusp of the parabolic region - Weekly is at 52 (above that leads to parabolic breakouts), 2D also at that level, 1D hopefully finding support at 55. All the RSIs being above those levels still tells me that this is still in a bullish posture. It's just a question of if and when it breaks out from here

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Got the reversal higher today. Let's see if we can if the move can play out between today and Thursday.

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Alright... we're starting to see bullish candles, but price hasn't really moved yet. I'm more interested to see what happens tomorrow and Thursday. Those are key dates on the chart.

Decay is hurting the option values since they're way out of the money and price has moved within a $1 range, but I'm just going to keep holding to see if this thesis plays out.

It it does hit, it'll be a massive trade. If it doesn't, then all good. Market is looking weak, we just need a catalyst to see a larger move.

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I added 27C for 10/25 a little after open
Also 30C for 11/01

Up on both so far. Still down on the $40,42C for next week, but a large move will change that.

Chart is looking clearer -- still unsure how quickly it'll move, but looking good so far.

Today was a key pivot which is why I added at open. Next resistance will be at 31ish area, above that and $38, $46, $54, then $64 top.

My initial idea was either we reject at the top 64ish level or possibility that we go higher to $78 or $96. Again, still a long ways to go but just wanted to share the levels I'm looking at.

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Sold the 27C for 220%
Sold half of $30 for 130%

Going to keep the rest of the $30 for now.

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Now only down 5% on the 40C and 13% on for next week expiration.

Solid move today.

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Added more 30C for 11/1 here at $.44

It all comes down to next week. Let's see if it ends up playing out.

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I'll be exiting everything by Wednesday either way this goes.

This dip looks similar to the July 31st candle.

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Alright building confidence in the move w/ vol spiking. 30C now at $.86 from the buy this morning.

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Added some more 30C for 11/1 between $.36-.44 this morning. Coin flip for tomorrow- we either see a move or we don't.

If not, I'll exit at a loss and then reassess.

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Going to give it until tomorrow and see what happens. We've been consolidating, I expect a big move soon. Again, I think the move needs to play out before Nov 1. We have a ton of tech earnings after the market closes. We also have a japan rate decision. Not sure if those are the catalysts or not, but pivots can usually be off by one day, so going to let it ride.

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Welp glad I ended up holding on until today. Market looking extremely weak premarket. UVXY up 2.8% or so.

Lots of negative earnings reactions after the close yesterday. North Korea launched an ICBM. Iran threatening to retaliate against Israel and now PCE to release in a little over an hour.

I never know the catalyst ahead of time, only important dates. Then you have to give your best guess as to what could happen on that date based on what you see on the chart.

Yesterday, the reason I held onto the position was not just because of the pivot dates, but because on every timeframe on the chart, the RSI was bullish above my 48 level. On top of that MACD was crossing positively and another custom indicator I used showed price bottoming.

Now the question becomes how big of a move will we get today? I'm looking for a target of at least $46 and up to $96 and SPY at $565 - $535 as the short term bottom and before I fully close out my positions. Really, I think the end of the short term move down will be when SPY is at $535, but the likelihood that we get it by the end of day is slim (as that would be an extremely large move down for a single day). If we don't get it by EOD, I will likely close out all of my options positions and look for a good reentry point for a 11/22 expiration.

Reason being, that's the next important date on the charts is 11/11.

Will need to see how price action plays out throughout the day, then will update later when I decide what I'm going to do.

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Leaning towards one more move up today to the 31.7ish range. Likely where I'll take profit if it gets up there. Then reposition sometime next week.

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Ended up selling everything. It's possible that we see continuation tomorrow, but with short dated options, wanted to get out and reposition.

I think we'll see the larger move happen towards the end of November into December.

Will post some new ideas shortly.

5 days ago

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So far, so good. Looking like we sold at the perfect spot.

I'm looking at the $24-25 region to start building a position again.

benjihyam

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