VHYL: How low-risk do you want your chart to be?

How low-risk do you want your chart to be?

- No breakdown PA at top;
- Clear SFP level supported by big structure;
- Lack of horizontality + big verticality making the
SFP-level even stronger.

Note

Though I must say SFP'ing the big structure would make the chart look very clean. But I just don't think it will get there as the environment at the highs is different: back in the covid crash you had the interaction with the 2015 high (this was a relevant level) producing resistance making the crash bigger. Now in 2025 there's no interaction with a relevant level as there's no level, so the crash likely won't be as big, making me believe the $57.632 level will hold instead of price going for the SFP of the big structure at $51.751.

Also, as said before, this big structure is formed in a positive way: lots of verticality in the structure (zigzag) but even more important: price clearly pushed out of the structure, therefore ending the 'production' of the structure giving it it's supportive value. In 2020 there was also lots of structure, close to the relevant 2015 level even which is bullish as it makes the relevant level weaker, but the problem is: when price then doesn't manage to push out of the structure in a strong way (fast and big verticality), clearly closing the production of the structure as price now looks way different (like now: 2021-2023 PA vs 2024-2025 PA), then the production of the structure never actually ends (even though price managed to get above the 2025 relevant level, 2017-2020 PA is still one structure), therefore the structure is never closed out and you don't get the supportive value which it would have if price moved significantly out of it. That's the reason I think how price could drop so easily through it all in the covid crash.

I better be right now, otherwise the above would be loads of 'gibberish' ;).

Trade active

Limit order hit on April 7 2025 with an average price of €56,39.

1/3 of total allocation hit on market open as I put the limit order on the level but the market opened below it which is quite convenient I must stay as I got a better price. Limit order = price of limit order or better and I got better as 56<57.

The other 2/3 I entered 1-2 hours later as I hadn't expected price to break down that fast: I didn't have the funds needed in my bank account yet lmaoo.

If price closes way above the level on the Monthly (so end of april) I think we're all good and this trade will be a perfect one.

EyyJasper

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EyyJasper