VIX at a Crossroads... Again 8/18/2020
Well, the little VIX bunny hop happened today. VIX briefly hopped to 22.5. However, high liquidity just smacked it back down like an annoying mosquito. This action shouldn't be a surprise really.
That little hop was just enough to keep the VVIX alive again. There are two blue lines as resistance now. The light blue is the "old" wedge resistance. The plain blue line is the new wedge resistance. Assuming that 21 holds as support, there should be a secondary jump either on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. This is gray territory here. What do I mean by that? I'm not even trading until I get an answer. I'm that uncertain.
This is a battle of time than a battle of "price."
One theory is that permabears would short their remaining ammo when the ES reaches just above 3400. Another theory is that the ES is back in its ascending wedge again.
I'm not expecting a big jump at all. Liquidity levels are high enough to go scuba diving in. If it did jump, that would require some serious institutional selling.
On a side not, do NOT treat the VIX and VVIX as normal indices. The VIX is a set of CBOE algorithms and formulas. Gap filling, bull/bear flags, double top/bottom patterns, etc... The VIX cares about those things as much as I care about permabulls/permabears' biased opinions (hint: it's zero). If you trade the VIX like a normal index, may the market gods have mercy on your account.
That little hop was just enough to keep the VVIX alive again. There are two blue lines as resistance now. The light blue is the "old" wedge resistance. The plain blue line is the new wedge resistance. Assuming that 21 holds as support, there should be a secondary jump either on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. This is gray territory here. What do I mean by that? I'm not even trading until I get an answer. I'm that uncertain.
This is a battle of time than a battle of "price."
One theory is that permabears would short their remaining ammo when the ES reaches just above 3400. Another theory is that the ES is back in its ascending wedge again.
I'm not expecting a big jump at all. Liquidity levels are high enough to go scuba diving in. If it did jump, that would require some serious institutional selling.
On a side not, do NOT treat the VIX and VVIX as normal indices. The VIX is a set of CBOE algorithms and formulas. Gap filling, bull/bear flags, double top/bottom patterns, etc... The VIX cares about those things as much as I care about permabulls/permabears' biased opinions (hint: it's zero). If you trade the VIX like a normal index, may the market gods have mercy on your account.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.