End of an era: Big fear is out of the market
What a wonderdul week! I have been buying since October so you bet I enjoyed it, first I started with the tech indice, I even bought the very bottom of that consolidation area, nice. I expected the "uncertainty" to be over and optimism to come back 1 at a time.
But the nasdaq indice was not doing that great - it went up but weak - so I switched to the S&P 500 (and also was in Bitcoin which did really well since $12000 but it got banned so I had to get out).
And for 6 months I have seen bears suffer. Some of them post articles, ideas, videos. It's a running gag, where everyday they come up with something even more apocalyptic they run out of ideas to make it even more negative than the last day. "It's even worse than I thought everything about to collapse our food stores are running dry we will all starve to death".
My ideas from 6 months ago:
We can look at the commitment of traders:
It's still the same institutions that have been hesitant and skeptical literally since the 2009 bottom, 12 years later are still skeptical, even net short.
Jim Cramer only look at zoomed in daily charts?
This guy is in show business now, so I'm going to have to assume he does drugs.
These institutions they're really short? Or Short the future and invested in all sorts of stocks?
I already know the answer but it seems so unreal. Prices have been going up for 12 years and they STILL are sellers.
"Ooooh it's coming".
With buyback programs the biggest buyers by far.
And the FED is printing to make sure it goes up, what kind of idiots are fighting this?
Maybe the US will soon become Weimar Germany and the stock market will do a 10X (after ajusting for inflation) like the German one did.
Bears are suffering and are on the edge.
Sometimes I think 99% of market participants "pros" included just holds bags forever and adds to them and never cuts losses.
Humans own the planet, now they have to evolve into a predator mentality rather than this holding onto losers forever fight to survive the predators.
Bears are the enemy. You may be my friend but if you are a short seller now you are my enemy. The enemy is suffering as we bulldoze our way through.
The price not only is going up now throwing them some hope with a little red candle here and there, it is going up in a straight line. The pain is maximum.
Bears are like the average human, I'd like to think the losing mentality "never give up" emotional human is underrepresented in the markets, but there are still many and besides it's not binary, it is sort of a spectrum, everyone has some of it, some more some less, and under enough stress maybe we all suck.
Bears rather than cut their losses and get a 100% certainty small loss, rather hold on, even add, for a chance (1%? XD) to not take a loss, even if this means risking taking a much larger loss.
From this point it's no longer about logical pricing, it's about pain and how much of it can bears take.
When the fear index has a high period then drops back to normal, the S&P price usually goes really far. How much pain can they take? 5000 points? More?
As I said bears are our enemy. Our goal is to destroy them, run them over like a hoard of rhinos, obliterate every last bit of hope they have.
Each tick higher, and each time they clic on "sell" the pain grows and they get weaker.
Each tick higher, and each time we clic on "buy" we end in an even better, stronger, more comfy, position.
And each bear that falls makes us stronger.
This is an uphill battle for the bears. We continue to press our advantage until the last bear falls. No quarter, no letting down the pace.
We hit harder and harder, we go up faster and faster. Rest in piece short sellers.
Hey and after bears capitulate and this goes parabolic I expect a big correction, might be good to sell and buy back lower at some point.
The VIX after so long "fear" only just went below 20 and it's way too early, we are barely entering optimism, there is a long long way to go before mainstream media and Jim Cramer have a "thrill" posture / admit we are in a bull market.
A long long way to go...
But the nasdaq indice was not doing that great - it went up but weak - so I switched to the S&P 500 (and also was in Bitcoin which did really well since $12000 but it got banned so I had to get out).
And for 6 months I have seen bears suffer. Some of them post articles, ideas, videos. It's a running gag, where everyday they come up with something even more apocalyptic they run out of ideas to make it even more negative than the last day. "It's even worse than I thought everything about to collapse our food stores are running dry we will all starve to death".
My ideas from 6 months ago:
We can look at the commitment of traders:
It's still the same institutions that have been hesitant and skeptical literally since the 2009 bottom, 12 years later are still skeptical, even net short.
Jim Cramer only look at zoomed in daily charts?
This guy is in show business now, so I'm going to have to assume he does drugs.
These institutions they're really short? Or Short the future and invested in all sorts of stocks?
I already know the answer but it seems so unreal. Prices have been going up for 12 years and they STILL are sellers.
"Ooooh it's coming".
With buyback programs the biggest buyers by far.
And the FED is printing to make sure it goes up, what kind of idiots are fighting this?
Maybe the US will soon become Weimar Germany and the stock market will do a 10X (after ajusting for inflation) like the German one did.
Bears are suffering and are on the edge.
Sometimes I think 99% of market participants "pros" included just holds bags forever and adds to them and never cuts losses.
Humans own the planet, now they have to evolve into a predator mentality rather than this holding onto losers forever fight to survive the predators.
Bears are the enemy. You may be my friend but if you are a short seller now you are my enemy. The enemy is suffering as we bulldoze our way through.
The price not only is going up now throwing them some hope with a little red candle here and there, it is going up in a straight line. The pain is maximum.
Bears are like the average human, I'd like to think the losing mentality "never give up" emotional human is underrepresented in the markets, but there are still many and besides it's not binary, it is sort of a spectrum, everyone has some of it, some more some less, and under enough stress maybe we all suck.
Bears rather than cut their losses and get a 100% certainty small loss, rather hold on, even add, for a chance (1%? XD) to not take a loss, even if this means risking taking a much larger loss.
From this point it's no longer about logical pricing, it's about pain and how much of it can bears take.
When the fear index has a high period then drops back to normal, the S&P price usually goes really far. How much pain can they take? 5000 points? More?
As I said bears are our enemy. Our goal is to destroy them, run them over like a hoard of rhinos, obliterate every last bit of hope they have.
Each tick higher, and each time they clic on "sell" the pain grows and they get weaker.
Each tick higher, and each time we clic on "buy" we end in an even better, stronger, more comfy, position.
And each bear that falls makes us stronger.
This is an uphill battle for the bears. We continue to press our advantage until the last bear falls. No quarter, no letting down the pace.
We hit harder and harder, we go up faster and faster. Rest in piece short sellers.
Hey and after bears capitulate and this goes parabolic I expect a big correction, might be good to sell and buy back lower at some point.
The VIX after so long "fear" only just went below 20 and it's way too early, we are barely entering optimism, there is a long long way to go before mainstream media and Jim Cramer have a "thrill" posture / admit we are in a bull market.
A long long way to go...
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