VIX - Elliott Wave Illustrates a Potential Bottoming Pattern
Updated
I've been tracking VIX since 2020. I believe that VIX is in a bottoming pattern and will start the next leg up to a new high soon.
VIX doesn't act like an equity. Mainly because it isn't an equity. Its waves don't move like an equity. It usually operates in 3-wave segments over longer timeframes whereas equities operate in both 5-wave and 3-wave segments.
Elliott Wave corrective patterns move in 3-wave segments. You can see a series of these 3-wave moves on this chart leading up to the previous high in early 2022 with light red Wave A. Following that top, I expected a 3-wave corrective move back down. Instead, we've gotten a very choppy, almost Darvas Box looking structure. I've come to realize that this is actually an Elliot Wave triangle pattern (labeled with circled numbers in pink) and I am expecting a bottom in the last segment of it, pink Wave Circle e, which will finish off the light red B wave. It should then start a 5-wave pattern back up to finish off the larger degree 3-wave structure ending in light red C. I've shown some basic extension levels to help predict the landing spot. The first is a 76-100% extension of the size of the light red A wave from the expected bottom of light red Wave B (orange). The second is a 123%-161.8% (the golden ratio) extension of the pink circle d wave of our triangle from the expected bottom of pink circle e (yellow). Each of these can be correct, and they could both be correct. Alternatively, since markets are merely a battle of sentiment, VIX could land somewhere else. We are, remember, looking at a volatility index that tracks S&P options. And the S&P is in a topping pattern of some sort of a bear market bounce corrective wave.
But ultimately, there are two channels I've added to illustrate why I think light red Wave C will land where and when it does. The first connects the bottom in July 2021 to the expected bottom it is currently working on, with the parallel top line connecting the top of light red Wave A to the expected landing point of light red Wave C. This channel is in green. The second channel covers the trajectory of the light red Wave A from bottom to top and then extends its parallel companion from the expected bottom that we are currently working on. That channel is in blue. Both of these channels perfectly intercept each other at a key MAJOR Elliott Wave fib level that usually indicates a C-wave end (the 100% extension of Wave A from the bottom of Wave B). And it also happens to line up with the timing that I've predicted for the next bottoming event in the S&P 500 (not shown here).
Lastly, all of this lines up with the fact that RSI is clearly in a bottoming pattern on daily candles and showing a potentially oversold state.
There are many calculations not shown here so as to not clog up the view.
I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade.
-mazag08 - TastyWavez 2022
VIX doesn't act like an equity. Mainly because it isn't an equity. Its waves don't move like an equity. It usually operates in 3-wave segments over longer timeframes whereas equities operate in both 5-wave and 3-wave segments.
Elliott Wave corrective patterns move in 3-wave segments. You can see a series of these 3-wave moves on this chart leading up to the previous high in early 2022 with light red Wave A. Following that top, I expected a 3-wave corrective move back down. Instead, we've gotten a very choppy, almost Darvas Box looking structure. I've come to realize that this is actually an Elliot Wave triangle pattern (labeled with circled numbers in pink) and I am expecting a bottom in the last segment of it, pink Wave Circle e, which will finish off the light red B wave. It should then start a 5-wave pattern back up to finish off the larger degree 3-wave structure ending in light red C. I've shown some basic extension levels to help predict the landing spot. The first is a 76-100% extension of the size of the light red A wave from the expected bottom of light red Wave B (orange). The second is a 123%-161.8% (the golden ratio) extension of the pink circle d wave of our triangle from the expected bottom of pink circle e (yellow). Each of these can be correct, and they could both be correct. Alternatively, since markets are merely a battle of sentiment, VIX could land somewhere else. We are, remember, looking at a volatility index that tracks S&P options. And the S&P is in a topping pattern of some sort of a bear market bounce corrective wave.
But ultimately, there are two channels I've added to illustrate why I think light red Wave C will land where and when it does. The first connects the bottom in July 2021 to the expected bottom it is currently working on, with the parallel top line connecting the top of light red Wave A to the expected landing point of light red Wave C. This channel is in green. The second channel covers the trajectory of the light red Wave A from bottom to top and then extends its parallel companion from the expected bottom that we are currently working on. That channel is in blue. Both of these channels perfectly intercept each other at a key MAJOR Elliott Wave fib level that usually indicates a C-wave end (the 100% extension of Wave A from the bottom of Wave B). And it also happens to line up with the timing that I've predicted for the next bottoming event in the S&P 500 (not shown here).
Lastly, all of this lines up with the fact that RSI is clearly in a bottoming pattern on daily candles and showing a potentially oversold state.
There are many calculations not shown here so as to not clog up the view.
I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade.
-mazag08 - TastyWavez 2022
Order cancelled
Long overdue update. This post was a complete failure. The wave setup was inaccurate looking back and failed rather quickly. VIX did have a mini spike, but it was months after this post and not as high as expected. VIX is now approaching lows not seen since June 2021 and February 2020 before that.
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