Hail Mary
Updated
Wish broke through what seemed like a quadruple bottom on it's $4.89 support line and since then it's been bombs away. The last trendline I have is the bottom of the descending wedge. Wish is now oversold on multiple time frames. It continues to set new all time lows day after day and is down over 30% in 5 days. But what I'm presenting is what we call the hail mary of the charting world - one of the largest descending wedges I've ever seen in my life and some pretty large bullish MACD divergence sprinkled with a little bit of bullish RSI divergence on top.
I keep thinking that at some point selling momentum will fade and people with realize that other companies are valued exponentially higher than Wish with significantly lower revenues, and that Wish is actually an extreme value at these levels either for a turnaround, a meme pump, a gap fill at $9.40, or a buyout. A decent comparison of another volatile and quasi-meme stock is Palantir which currently trades at 15x Wish's valuation but last year had less than half of the revenue that Wish had (1.1b v 2.5b) and still operates at quarterly losses comparable to Wish's. I do understand it is more tech focused so this isn't apples to apples, but that valuation is eye popping compared to Wish trading at just over 1x its 2020 annual revenue.
I think when this reverses, it reverses hard and start creeping up into the double digits. I'd give it a few quarters to happen at most. Best of luck to all the fellow bagholders out there, I hope we can all make it through to the other side. What is happening feels like a stop loss hunt and a margin squeeze on retail. Hold shares not options.
I keep thinking that at some point selling momentum will fade and people with realize that other companies are valued exponentially higher than Wish with significantly lower revenues, and that Wish is actually an extreme value at these levels either for a turnaround, a meme pump, a gap fill at $9.40, or a buyout. A decent comparison of another volatile and quasi-meme stock is Palantir which currently trades at 15x Wish's valuation but last year had less than half of the revenue that Wish had (1.1b v 2.5b) and still operates at quarterly losses comparable to Wish's. I do understand it is more tech focused so this isn't apples to apples, but that valuation is eye popping compared to Wish trading at just over 1x its 2020 annual revenue.
I think when this reverses, it reverses hard and start creeping up into the double digits. I'd give it a few quarters to happen at most. Best of luck to all the fellow bagholders out there, I hope we can all make it through to the other side. What is happening feels like a stop loss hunt and a margin squeeze on retail. Hold shares not options.
Note
Looks like we may have found a short term bottom at $3.97. This selling is relentless and has closely paralleled other stocks that retail is heavy in - Z, PTON, WKHS, PLTR, ROOT, CLOV etc. and without going too deep into the conspiracy well really feels and looks like a coordinated attack to force retail into margin calls and buy up shares at cheap prices. MFI shows the outflows at the max, should start coming in shortly after this. Still seeing bullish divergence on RSI and MACD.I'll continue to hold, this could be the corner that we have already started to turn. Once this stabilizes I think it could gap up very quickly.
Note
LOAD THE WAGONS. WE JUST HIT THE BOTTOM.
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