The bull case for wish
I do not want to get into details about fundamentals etc we all saw wish quarterly results but with some much retail in this stock i was expecting a huge decline, the fact that retail investors all over the web are so pissed about wish and start panicking and exiting their positions is a + for me as i hold a long position.
Now there are some interesting things i want to point out.
There was a Wish pump on reddit based on the story that there is a 50% short float, which led to a 100% increase in price in 2days!!! at the same time Peter Thiel's founders fund start liquidating their positions together with galileo and temasek holdings which all were VC's that were with wish from the beginning. (nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/wish/institutional-holdings)
Now why did these guys sold?
1. They already had a good return on investment since they were wish first investors
2. With so much publicity on wish stock and the pump to $15 they had they chance to sell so many shares instantly (insane demand from retail)
3. ***I am not sure about this one but a general rule of thumb on VC's is that they sell roughly 75% of their shares when a company does IPO. (makes sense because they need liquidity to look for other Startups)
Now let's look at wish itself and where it could go from here.
1. We have rsi divergence on daily chart
2. Macd is higher than the previous drop
3. DMI is also in divergence
4. The company is worth right now 3.9b with 1.5b cash and $2.5-33B in sales
5.They are losing users which is a very bad sign long term but even if they decide to close the business they could easily sell it for 2-3x sales meaning a market cap close to $8-10b
6. If they were to go bankrupt as many people say why did they hire new C level people , why did they spend so much money on logisticis and why did they get a banking license in Europe ?
7. I hear a lot the phrase "wish sells crap" well what most people that play the markets do not understand that wish customers are the majority of the population out there, what they do not understand is the fact that people are looking to buy cheap things from china because they do not have money to afford buying from amazon,etsy,shop etc... There are no wish buyers that trade stocks, this is the one thing you all have to understand! Wish buyers are people who used to buy on traditional brick & mortar, on illegal sales on the streets , on chinese stores etc.. These people have started to explore the web with Covid and still do not have much presence online as customers of amazon and others.
8. Wish #1 competitive advantage is that even people who never bought from it have heard about it. If they manage to improve delivery times and merchants quality they are about to address the largest % of the population out there.
9. Even if they do not manage to do that , even if they drop to 22B in sales , even if they are about to get out of business i cannot imagine that there is no one big player out there that is willing to buy them for a mediocre multiple of sales.
10. IF they execute right i believe this is easily a 100b+ company in the next 3-5years stop whining and either sell and admit you were wrong or hold tight and wait.
Now there are some interesting things i want to point out.
There was a Wish pump on reddit based on the story that there is a 50% short float, which led to a 100% increase in price in 2days!!! at the same time Peter Thiel's founders fund start liquidating their positions together with galileo and temasek holdings which all were VC's that were with wish from the beginning. (nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/wish/institutional-holdings)
Now why did these guys sold?
1. They already had a good return on investment since they were wish first investors
2. With so much publicity on wish stock and the pump to $15 they had they chance to sell so many shares instantly (insane demand from retail)
3. ***I am not sure about this one but a general rule of thumb on VC's is that they sell roughly 75% of their shares when a company does IPO. (makes sense because they need liquidity to look for other Startups)
Now let's look at wish itself and where it could go from here.
1. We have rsi divergence on daily chart
2. Macd is higher than the previous drop
3. DMI is also in divergence
4. The company is worth right now 3.9b with 1.5b cash and $2.5-33B in sales
5.They are losing users which is a very bad sign long term but even if they decide to close the business they could easily sell it for 2-3x sales meaning a market cap close to $8-10b
6. If they were to go bankrupt as many people say why did they hire new C level people , why did they spend so much money on logisticis and why did they get a banking license in Europe ?
7. I hear a lot the phrase "wish sells crap" well what most people that play the markets do not understand that wish customers are the majority of the population out there, what they do not understand is the fact that people are looking to buy cheap things from china because they do not have money to afford buying from amazon,etsy,shop etc... There are no wish buyers that trade stocks, this is the one thing you all have to understand! Wish buyers are people who used to buy on traditional brick & mortar, on illegal sales on the streets , on chinese stores etc.. These people have started to explore the web with Covid and still do not have much presence online as customers of amazon and others.
8. Wish #1 competitive advantage is that even people who never bought from it have heard about it. If they manage to improve delivery times and merchants quality they are about to address the largest % of the population out there.
9. Even if they do not manage to do that , even if they drop to 22B in sales , even if they are about to get out of business i cannot imagine that there is no one big player out there that is willing to buy them for a mediocre multiple of sales.
10. IF they execute right i believe this is easily a 100b+ company in the next 3-5years stop whining and either sell and admit you were wrong or hold tight and wait.
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