SPX and Fed Liabilities+Capital Correlation since 2017
Banking crisis saved this divergence. What happens when bank deposit outflows slow (which MMF inflows data suggests will happen, so far) and the Fed is free to go back to unloading the balance sheet?
Note
Deposit data bounced back, waiting to see how tax season affects this.Note
Oh boy. That divergence is widening severely.Note
I'll try to keep this updated every wednesday with my take so here it is:another tick down, started to see a nice little pullback. once the earnings nonsense is out of the way, I believe this divergence will start to close to the downside.
Trade closed: target reached
Posted an updated version with weekly closes, instead of Wed. closes
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