FILE : SILVER
Hello, in this article I will try to evaluate the silver that everyone has been eyeing on lately.
0 - INTRODUCTION
What Is Silver?
Silver, a precious metal, is an element commonly used in jewelry, coins, electronics, and photography. It has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal and is, therefore, a highly valuable substance. In many global cultures and religions, silver is used in traditional ceremonies and worn as jewelry during important occasions.
Source : investopedia.com/terms/s/silver.asp
Silver as Disinfectant
Silver has been used as an antimicrobial for thousands of years. Over the past several decades, it has been introduced into numerous new venues such as in the treatment of water, in dietary supplements, in medical applications, and to produce antimicrobial coatings and products. Silver is often used as an alternative disinfectant in applications in which the use of traditional disinfectants such as chlorine may result in the formation of toxic by-products or cause corrosion of surfaces. Silver has also been demonstrated to produce a synergistic effect in combination with several other disinfectants. Many mechanisms of the antibacterial effect of silver have been described, but its antiviral and antiprotozoal mechanisms are not well understood. Both microbial tolerance and resistance to silver have been reported; however, the effect of silver has been observed against a wide variety of microorganisms over a period of years. Further research is needed to determine the antimicrobial efficacy of silver in these new applications and the effects of its long-term usage.
Source : pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17708071/
Another article investigating the antibacterial properties of silver:
iecpartners.com/2020/04/04/silvers-antimicrobial-properties-and-the-novel-coronavirus-covid-19
Silver Reserves
A lot of dirty information about silver reserves is floating around.
For example, it looks like it will completely end in 2029 ...
We can't say that's %100 true!
Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.
Source : sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344913002747
But we should take into account that between 2027 and 2038, there will not be an abundance of supply as before.
Can the Oxidation problem of Silver be Solved?
Yes, I will briefly summarize the information I have obtained from various sources.
Yes, silver tarnished, but this is a problem that can easily be fixed.
There are practical videos about this on social media.
Since silver has an oxidation and tarnishing problem and is widely used in the industry, it is used in the alloy .
1 - GENERAL ANALYSIS
Let's start.
As seen on the chart, while silver speculator positions decreased, their commercial positions increased considerably :
Since March, the price has increased by more than 100%, while the speculator positions have fallen by more than 50%. (Green)
Commercial positions, on the other hand, increased significantly in the last decline before March.
Here the following should not be forgotten;
Commercial positions are much larger than speculator positions.
Lot sizes are different.
With the rising prices, we see that a little bit of a sales trend has entered. (Red )
Both sides are far from historical highs and historical lows.
The fact that speculators are on the net + and the commercials are also net - show that the trend can continue.
But the following phenomenon I mentioned above:
Since March, the price has increased by more than 100%, while the speculator positions have fallen by more than 50%. (Green)
However, the following fact I mentioned above shows that those who will make evaluations should be prepared for hard retractions.
2 -SUPPORT AND RESISTANCES
Fibonacci Supports :
* 26.772
* 21.877
* 13.965
Fibonacci Resistances :
* 30.727
* 34.683 ( Major Resistance)
* 40.316
* 47.49 ( All time high since 2009 Economic Crisis )
3 - CONCLUSION
Pros
Cons
4 - SUMMARY
Slight percentage sizes can be preferred to diversify the portfolio.
For example ; 5% - 10% of the ratio given to gold can be divided into silver.
What I write in this section is my personal opinion and is not intended to be investment advice.
I tried to stick to enough sources in the articles.
Hopefully it will benefit investors and traders.
Regards.
0 - INTRODUCTION
What Is Silver?
Silver, a precious metal, is an element commonly used in jewelry, coins, electronics, and photography. It has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal and is, therefore, a highly valuable substance. In many global cultures and religions, silver is used in traditional ceremonies and worn as jewelry during important occasions.
- Silver is a precious metal for many reasons: it has historically been used for coinage and jewelry, and it is also highly conductive, giving it many industrial uses.
- Investors and traders buy silver through commodities markets.
- Most of the world's silver production in 2015 came as a byproduct from lead-zinc, copper, and gold mines.
Source : investopedia.com/terms/s/silver.asp
Silver as Disinfectant
Silver has been used as an antimicrobial for thousands of years. Over the past several decades, it has been introduced into numerous new venues such as in the treatment of water, in dietary supplements, in medical applications, and to produce antimicrobial coatings and products. Silver is often used as an alternative disinfectant in applications in which the use of traditional disinfectants such as chlorine may result in the formation of toxic by-products or cause corrosion of surfaces. Silver has also been demonstrated to produce a synergistic effect in combination with several other disinfectants. Many mechanisms of the antibacterial effect of silver have been described, but its antiviral and antiprotozoal mechanisms are not well understood. Both microbial tolerance and resistance to silver have been reported; however, the effect of silver has been observed against a wide variety of microorganisms over a period of years. Further research is needed to determine the antimicrobial efficacy of silver in these new applications and the effects of its long-term usage.
Source : pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17708071/
Another article investigating the antibacterial properties of silver:
iecpartners.com/2020/04/04/silvers-antimicrobial-properties-and-the-novel-coronavirus-covid-19
Silver Reserves
A lot of dirty information about silver reserves is floating around.
For example, it looks like it will completely end in 2029 ...
We can't say that's %100 true!
Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.
Source : sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344913002747
But we should take into account that between 2027 and 2038, there will not be an abundance of supply as before.
Can the Oxidation problem of Silver be Solved?
Yes, I will briefly summarize the information I have obtained from various sources.
Yes, silver tarnished, but this is a problem that can easily be fixed.
There are practical videos about this on social media.
Since silver has an oxidation and tarnishing problem and is widely used in the industry, it is used in the alloy .
1 - GENERAL ANALYSIS
Let's start.
As seen on the chart, while silver speculator positions decreased, their commercial positions increased considerably :
Since March, the price has increased by more than 100%, while the speculator positions have fallen by more than 50%. (Green)
Commercial positions, on the other hand, increased significantly in the last decline before March.
Here the following should not be forgotten;
Commercial positions are much larger than speculator positions.
Lot sizes are different.
With the rising prices, we see that a little bit of a sales trend has entered. (Red )
Both sides are far from historical highs and historical lows.
The fact that speculators are on the net + and the commercials are also net - show that the trend can continue.
But the following phenomenon I mentioned above:
Since March, the price has increased by more than 100%, while the speculator positions have fallen by more than 50%. (Green)
However, the following fact I mentioned above shows that those who will make evaluations should be prepared for hard retractions.
2 -SUPPORT AND RESISTANCES
Fibonacci Supports :
* 26.772
* 21.877
* 13.965
Fibonacci Resistances :
* 30.727
* 34.683 ( Major Resistance)
* 40.316
* 47.49 ( All time high since 2009 Economic Crisis )
3 - CONCLUSION
Pros
- There is still a way to the top.
- The partial disinfectant effect can lead to an increase in demand during the pandemic period.
- Soaring gold prices create an alternative for silver, albeit temporarily.
- If new reserves are not discovered after 2027, the supply may drop.
Cons
- Much attention should be paid to the content of silver funds and whether they make parallel movements with commodity silver.
Foam may occur due to speculation.
Silver will always remain the half-brother of Gold.
Gold is also expected to decrease in supply in roughly the same years.
Gold is much more practical and common than silver.
It is also much more reliable and famous for inflation protection.
For many years the price may not see old or new peaks.
4 - SUMMARY
Slight percentage sizes can be preferred to diversify the portfolio.
For example ; 5% - 10% of the ratio given to gold can be divided into silver.
What I write in this section is my personal opinion and is not intended to be investment advice.
I tried to stick to enough sources in the articles.
Hopefully it will benefit investors and traders.
Regards.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.