Gold broke through and fell sharply, hitting the lowest level of 3200, breaking the previous shock pattern.
Friday's non-agricultural data was unexpectedly negative, and the rebound was under pressure at the top and bottom conversion level of 3268. The daily line closed with a cross K, and the overall shock remained.
Driving logic changes, and the impact of the tariff war weakens
The tariff tension that pushed gold to 3500 in the early stage has gradually eased, and the market focus has shifted to the Fed's policy.
The Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been postponed, and the non-agricultural data is strong, which strengthens the Fed's position of maintaining high interest rates, and gold is under pressure in the short term.
ETF positions continue to decrease. The world's largest gold ETF has continued to reduce its positions since it peaked on April 22, reflecting the bearish sentiment in the market.
Technical analysis
The daily structure, the cross K followed by three consecutive negatives, is usually a signal of continued decline. Combined with the bearish fundamentals, the probability of downward movement is relatively high.
The adjustment is not over yet, and attention should be paid to whether 3160 (61.8% golden ratio) can form support.
Short-term trend
The hourly chart rebound is weak, and the 100-day moving average continues to be under pressure, and the trend is still bearish.
Key positions and operation strategies
Pressure level: 3268-3275 (top and bottom conversion position), the extreme pullback does not break the 3280 watershed.
Support level: 3222-3224 (short-term support), break down to the 3200 mark, further target 3160.
Strategy:
Short at the beginning of the week based on the 3275-3268 pressure level, stop loss above 3280, target 3220-3200.
If it falls below 3200, follow up with short orders to 3160; if it stabilizes, observe the reversal signal.
Summary
Gold is dominated by shorts in the short term, and the operation is mainly rebound shorting, focusing on the Fed's policy expectations and the performance of the key support of 3160.
Free Signals：t.me/+86i8swucTrdiYWYx
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free Signals：t.me/+86i8swucTrdiYWYx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.