Last week, the US PCE data was in line with expectations, with the core PCE lower than expected. The US inflation cooled faster than market expectations, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose slightly to 51%. On Monday, the US ISM manufacturing PMI slowed for the second consecutive month, new goods orders hit a two-year low, and construction project spending also unexpectedly fell, indicating that the US economy seemed to be slowing down, consolidating expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, helping the probability of a rate cut in September to rise to 61%. Although the market has increased bets on the Fed's rate cut, considering that the previous meeting minutes and the Fed's speeches were both hawkish, the data may be difficult to change the Fed's current wait-and-see attitude, which limits the rebound of gold.
Although the market is betting more on the Fed's rate cut, the Fed may continue to maintain its current wait-and-see attitude, which still puts pressure on gold. Currently, gold is testing the support near $2,331, and there is a risk of losing it. If it breaks down, it will have the opportunity to test $2,323 and $2,314, and pay attention to the integer position of $2,300; if the gold price stabilizes, pay attention to $2,338, followed by $2,345 and $2,354, and the operation is to carry out high-altitude and low-multiple thinking.