GOLD fell as investors took profits

XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (September 27) due to pressure from profit-taking activities, but are on track to complete the strongest quarter increase in 8 years thanks to the prospect of lower interest rates globally, especially is the monetary policy pivot in the US.

World gold prices have continuously set records in the first 4 trading sessions of this week. In particular, the all-time peak of spot gold price is 2,685.42 USD/oz recorded on Thursday session.

In the third quarter, gold prices increased by 14%, the strongest increase in a quarter since the first quarter of 2016. This year, gold prices have increased 29%, the strongest increase in a year in the past 14 years.

In the last session of the week, investors received positive data on inflation, data points that could provide additional reasons for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting interest rates. A report from the US Department of Commerce only showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) - the Fed's favorite inflation measure - increased by 0.1% in August, consistent with economists' forecasts. out in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. Compared to the same period last year, PCE increased by 2.2%, lower than the forecast of 2.3%.

After the report was published, the market slightly increased bets on the possibility of the Fed continuing to sharply reduce interest rates at its November meeting. According to data from the FedWatch Tool of the CME trading floor, traders are Betting on the possibility of more than 54% of the Fed choosing a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut in the next meeting, and nearly 46% betting on a 0.25 percentage point reduction.

However, gold prices still had a falling session as many investors realized profits at record prices.

GOLD steadies as Powell and Fed shake up trading day today

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After many consecutive trading sessions setting new peaks, the world gold market today showed signs of slowing down. However, the overall growth trend is still maintained thanks to strong expectations that the Fed will continue to adjust interest rates down.

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Faced with the reality of gold scarcity in the world, experts predict that gold prices have a lot of room to grow in the near future, possibly even reaching 3,000 USD/ounce.

Since the beginning of the third quarter until now, gold prices have increased 14%. This is the highest increase in a quarter since the beginning of 2016 until now. Overall, from the beginning of 2024 until now, gold prices have increased by 29%, marking the highest increase in the past 14 years.

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Gold prices increased to a record level, helping many gold buyers win big. According to Gold Price, people who bought gold and held it for the past 6 months are earning more than 400 USD/ounce. Those who bought gold and held it for the past year are earning about 700 USD/ounce.

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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 30 - Oct 04]

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During the US session, Fed Chairman Powell is expected to give a speech on the economic outlook at the 66th annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Most likely, he will not give any new information compared to the previous press conference because he has not yet announced a new CPI or NFP report. So this speech may be notable but probably won't make a big impact.

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Gold continued to adjust sharply downward at the beginning of the week and bottomed at 2,630 USD/oz during the session. Profit-taking ahead of China's long holiday and cautious market sentiment appear to be putting pressure on XAU/USD as the market awaits Fed Chairman Powell's speech.

Note

The stimulus package announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to have positive effects. The rise of the Chinese stock market may also affect gold prices due to more attractive yields. Gold is still in extreme overbought territory, so further upside may be hampered.

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