On Saturday (January 27), gold prices remained stable this week, with spot gold falling 0.12% on Friday to close at $2018.38 per ounce. Gold has traded in a tight $10 range between $2,016 and $2,025 this week, down 0.55 percent, with only a slight reaction to even the most important data releases and corporate earnings reports. On Friday (January 26), the latest data released showed that the core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose at an annual rate of 2.9%, compared with market expectations of 3%. Real personal consumption expenditures climbed for a second straight month, up 0.5 percent. Real disposable income, a key support for consumer spending, rose 0.1%, the smallest increase in three months. The data was in line with expectations, which is consistent with what we've been hearing about consumer spending helping to boost economic growth, and now both numbers are up compared to last month, but I don't think it matters much to the overall market. Lower inflation is possible, but it will take more time. But you're looking at a slow-growing economy that could be strangled by interest rates of 5.25 percent or more. So if you want the economy to continue to do well, you have to get interest rates down. Otherwise, the economy could be negatively impacted by the current interest rate environment.
Gold has shown limited volatility in recent trading sessions and hasn't really gone anywhere in the last two weeks or so, with prices moving up and down without a clear trend. However, things could change going forward due to an event with a major impact on the U.S. economic calendar: the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday. In terms of expectations, the Fed is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged, but may drop its tightening bias in its post-meeting policy statement. While the strong economic growth reflected in the latest GDP report is good for policymakers to maintain their hawkish bias, the progress made on the deflation front makes a case for starting to lay the groundwork for a shift to an accommodative stance. It is for this reason that the possibility of a dovish outcome should not be completely ruled out. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adopts a more dovish stance and says the review of the broad parameters for a rate cut is well underway and further progress has been made since the last meeting, traders should brace for a possible sharp pullback in bond yields. That should support gold prices. And vice versa. If the chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee chooses to delay the market pricing of a significant rate cut and the timing of the first rate cut, then yields should continue to recover, boosting the dollar and weighing on precious metals. However, given Powell's swerve last month, that scenario is unlikely to materialize.
1.29 Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: According to the gold monthly chart, the monthly line large-cycle moving average has a tendency to flatten, the small-cycle moving average diverges downward, the monthly K line stands above the moving average system, and the monthly line is biased toward bulls. At present, there are still 2 trading days left from the monthly line, but there is still a certain dispute on the average line, the current 5/10 moving average has signs of downward movement, which is now the only doubt that exists on the average line, or the next monthly line to further determine, from the bare K line alone, still running in the small cycle of the high point, low new low short trend. As long as the monthly line closes below the 2000 mark, the next monthly line will test the 5/10 moving average.
According to the gold weekly chart, the gold weekly line is even negative, and the large level is biased toward gold, and the current weekly line as a whole remains in the large range of 2040 to 2005, but it should be noted that the top of the gold high consolidation belt is blocked this week. Then next week's operation can rely on the weekly line of the 5/10 moving average position, that is, 2040 line to see the continuation of gold short, from the indicator, KDJ index in the middle of the turn down, MACD index glue down signs, red column shrinkage, indicators show that gold is biased downward, the operation continues to hold the 5/10 moving average to continue to see the volatility of gold bearish trend.
From the perspective of the gold daily chart, the yin-yang cycle of the daily line is still running in the convergence triangle shock trend, the daily line closes in negative, and the entity has signs of a broken consolidation belt, but it is still necessary to wait for the confirmation of the next K line, and the short line can be used as the shock. From the point of view of indicators, the KDJ index is flat in the middle, the MACD index in the middle of the dead fork diverges downward, the Brin begins to close, the middle rail diverges downward, the indicator shows that the possibility of gold bias adjustment is large, and the operation is still recommended to keep the idea of bouncing high.
According to the 4-hour chart of gold, the 4-hour cycle of gold is currently in a downward trend and has begun to enter a state of adjustment after a rapid decline. From the perspective of the recent structure of the K line, the K line has completed the entire decline since the fall of 2040, so the probability that it has ended from the perspective of the K line structure is greater. The pressure port above gold continues to be maintained at 2026-30 line, which is also the pressure level of the moving average, after the failure of the upward movement on Friday, it will again form a pattern of short-term shock repair, and the support below will be maintained at the integer close 2000 line, which is also the primary support point since the fall, and once this position continues to lose ground, The later falling space will also be further opened, and the current combination of the hourly line and the daily line form, Jin Shengfu believes that the overall idea or continue to maintain in the short, in summary, today's gold short-term operation ideas suggest that the rebound is mainly short, the call back is supplemented by more, the short-term focus on 2026-2028 resistance, Below the short-term focus on 2000-2005 line of support, friends must keep up with the rhythm. To control the position and stop loss problem, strictly set the stop loss, do not resist single operation. The recent market turbulence is large, opportunities and risks coexist, and risks are controlled.