XAU/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe, gold (XAU/USD) remains in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, we observed a breakout at the minor key level of 2,882.0, generating a strong buying momentum that aimed for the anticipated $3,000 gold mark. Unfortunately, price only reached $2,900, as this level acted as an accumulation phase, where market makers placed large sell orders to hunt buyers' stop-loss levels.
Following this, price broke below key levels, triggering a liquidation of buy-side liquidity, which we now consider a sell-side liquidity zone. Retail traders were caught off guard, placing short positions, expecting this move to be a trend shift (CHOCH - Change of Character). However, this was a false breakout designed to trap sellers.
Now that price has broken back above 2,882.0, our objective is to wait for a retest at the latest minor key support around 2,909.760, which will serve as our buy limit entry.
Buy Limit Entry: 2,909.760 (minor key support)
Stop Loss (SL): 2,864.500 (below sell-side liquidity)
Take Profit (TP): 3,000.080 (next minor key resistance & buyers' target level)
Fundamental Outlook:
Trump’s Call for Lower Interest Rates and Its Impact on XAU/USD
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Trump emphasized that lower rates would complement upcoming tariffs and align with his second-term economic agenda, which includes tax breaks and trade policies.
A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, influenced by political pressure, could weaken the U.S. dollar (USD) as lower interest rates reduce the appeal of USD-denominated assets. This, in turn, would make gold (XAU/USD) more attractive to investors seeking a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
If Powell signals a willingness to cut rates or maintain a dovish stance, gold could experience further upside momentum, aligning with our technical outlook. Conversely, if Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish stance, the USD could gain strength, temporarily pressuring gold prices.
Key Takeaways:
✔ Wait for the retest at the latest minor key support before executing trades.
✔ Fundamentals support gold’s bullish outlook—a dovish Fed could further boost XAU/USD.
✔ Patience is key—let price action confirm liquidity grabs before entering positions.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
On the 4-hour timeframe, gold (XAU/USD) remains in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, we observed a breakout at the minor key level of 2,882.0, generating a strong buying momentum that aimed for the anticipated $3,000 gold mark. Unfortunately, price only reached $2,900, as this level acted as an accumulation phase, where market makers placed large sell orders to hunt buyers' stop-loss levels.
Following this, price broke below key levels, triggering a liquidation of buy-side liquidity, which we now consider a sell-side liquidity zone. Retail traders were caught off guard, placing short positions, expecting this move to be a trend shift (CHOCH - Change of Character). However, this was a false breakout designed to trap sellers.
Now that price has broken back above 2,882.0, our objective is to wait for a retest at the latest minor key support around 2,909.760, which will serve as our buy limit entry.
Buy Limit Entry: 2,909.760 (minor key support)
Stop Loss (SL): 2,864.500 (below sell-side liquidity)
Take Profit (TP): 3,000.080 (next minor key resistance & buyers' target level)
Fundamental Outlook:
Trump’s Call for Lower Interest Rates and Its Impact on XAU/USD
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Trump emphasized that lower rates would complement upcoming tariffs and align with his second-term economic agenda, which includes tax breaks and trade policies.
A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, influenced by political pressure, could weaken the U.S. dollar (USD) as lower interest rates reduce the appeal of USD-denominated assets. This, in turn, would make gold (XAU/USD) more attractive to investors seeking a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures.
If Powell signals a willingness to cut rates or maintain a dovish stance, gold could experience further upside momentum, aligning with our technical outlook. Conversely, if Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish stance, the USD could gain strength, temporarily pressuring gold prices.
Key Takeaways:
✔ Wait for the retest at the latest minor key support before executing trades.
✔ Fundamentals support gold’s bullish outlook—a dovish Fed could further boost XAU/USD.
✔ Patience is key—let price action confirm liquidity grabs before entering positions.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.