Gold market trend analysis;
On Wednesday (January 23), the spot gold price traded near $2027 an ounce in the Asian market, and the gold price regained positive momentum on Tuesday, but it is still difficult to continue this momentum. Fed officials said last week that the central bank needed more inflation data before making any judgment on a rate cut, with a baseline for starting to cut rates in the third quarter. Strong U.S. economic data and hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve have led to heavy selling of metals, raising doubts about the Fed's upcoming rate-cutting cycle. In that sense, the upside potential for metals is limited as markets begin to adjust their bets on the Fed, which Tamva believes will leave rates unchanged at the end of its Jan. 30-31 policy meeting and shorten the timeline for the first rate cut. The focus of the week will be Wednesday's preliminary U.S. purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report, Thursday's advance fourth-quarter GDP estimate and Friday's personal consumption expenditures data. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is expected to keep monetary policy steady. Downside risks remain cushioned by further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which tends to support safe-haven gold prices. In addition, a slight fall in the US dollar to a one-week low, led by a rise in the yen after the boj, should provide support for gold prices. Traders may also be willing to wait for key macro data releases this week, namely the US fourth quarter GDP data and the US core PCE price index on Thursday and Friday.
Gold technical analysis; Gold yesterday, although there was a high but still did not break the 20-day moving average 2040 resistance, which further strengthened the effectiveness of this pressure, while the European session market rose after falling back, and toward the 5-day moving average to test, although the overall trend is expected to fluctuate between 2040-2020, but the trend of rising and falling may suppress the enthusiasm of market sentiment. In particular, the current state of the United States is still strong, will also hit the bullish confidence in gold, gold still fails to have a clear direction, not only did not go out of the range, but also increase the risk of uncertainty. However, since the end of December last year, the overall is still in the down channel, the resistance on the track 2046, as long as it can not break through before the station, the short term also tends to suppress the adjustment. From the current disk point of view, the 4-hour chart before the rebound 2037 line pressure back test, currently around the medium rail and the median of the range, long and short continued uncertainty, the low 2000 integer mark below and the small high above 2040 waiting to break through the strength of long and short, whether to recover the lost ground or rebound after correction and then the momentum to break remains to be seen. Due to the small space, the form has been passivated, and the current strength can not be seen to continue. In summary, it is suggested that the short-term operation ideas of the gold day should focus on the short-term resistance of 2037-2042, and the short-term focus on the 2017-2012 first-line support.