7.16 Gold Analysis
🔥 1. Inflation stickiness becomes the biggest shackle for gold
The latest CPI data reveals that inflation has fallen:
Overall CPI exceeded expectations: CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7% (higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%), and the monthly rate increased by 0.3%, a five-month high;
Core inflation is more stubborn: the core CPI annual rate unexpectedly climbed to 2.9% (higher than the previous value of 2.8%), although slightly lower than the expected 3.0%, but it highlights the stagnation of the de-inflation process;
Structural pressure has not been eliminated: housing costs are still the main driver, coupled with the rebound in energy prices (the overall energy index rose by 0.9%, gasoline rose by 1.0%) and general increases in many fields such as medical care and household goods, indicating that the breadth of inflation exceeded expectations.
⚖️ 2. Expectations for rate cuts continue to cool
Data strengthens the Fed's wait-and-see stance:
July is a foregone conclusion: the market expects a 95% chance of maintaining interest rates in July;
September rate cuts are in doubt: high core inflation forces the Fed to extend the observation period, and the probability of a September rate cut has dropped significantly;
📉 3. Gold prices are trapped in a box shock
Key price ranges are formed:
Lower defense line: $3,330 is the dividing line between long and short positions (psychological support and technical buying concentration area)
Upper shackles: $3,340 constitutes strong resistance (April high and short defense line)
Operation logic:
1. Range trading dominance: 3320-3335 light position to try long, 3340-3345 high position reduction
2. Breakout chasing strategy:
If it effectively falls below 3320, be alert to the release of short momentum and look down to 3300
If it breaks through 3345, follow up with long orders to 3360
3. Hedging suggestions: Gold longs can allocate US Treasury shorts to hedge interest rate risks
If my analysis can help you, I hope you can give me a thumbs up.
🔥 1. Inflation stickiness becomes the biggest shackle for gold
The latest CPI data reveals that inflation has fallen:
Overall CPI exceeded expectations: CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7% (higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%), and the monthly rate increased by 0.3%, a five-month high;
Core inflation is more stubborn: the core CPI annual rate unexpectedly climbed to 2.9% (higher than the previous value of 2.8%), although slightly lower than the expected 3.0%, but it highlights the stagnation of the de-inflation process;
Structural pressure has not been eliminated: housing costs are still the main driver, coupled with the rebound in energy prices (the overall energy index rose by 0.9%, gasoline rose by 1.0%) and general increases in many fields such as medical care and household goods, indicating that the breadth of inflation exceeded expectations.
⚖️ 2. Expectations for rate cuts continue to cool
Data strengthens the Fed's wait-and-see stance:
July is a foregone conclusion: the market expects a 95% chance of maintaining interest rates in July;
September rate cuts are in doubt: high core inflation forces the Fed to extend the observation period, and the probability of a September rate cut has dropped significantly;
📉 3. Gold prices are trapped in a box shock
Key price ranges are formed:
Lower defense line: $3,330 is the dividing line between long and short positions (psychological support and technical buying concentration area)
Upper shackles: $3,340 constitutes strong resistance (April high and short defense line)
Operation logic:
1. Range trading dominance: 3320-3335 light position to try long, 3340-3345 high position reduction
2. Breakout chasing strategy:
If it effectively falls below 3320, be alert to the release of short momentum and look down to 3300
If it breaks through 3345, follow up with long orders to 3360
3. Hedging suggestions: Gold longs can allocate US Treasury shorts to hedge interest rate risks
If my analysis can help you, I hope you can give me a thumbs up.
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.