XAUUSD 08/05
The JW Trade Centre
Precision. Patience. Profit.
Article Submission; Jordan Webb, Senior Analyst and Consultant FT and CS, TV.
Gold Volatility Erupts - XAU/USD Sheds Over 120 Points in Wild Intra-Day Swing
Date: 08 May 2025 21:17 UK Time | Price: 3308
XAU/USD delivered a day of extraordinary volatility, swinging 126 points from peak to trough within a 19-hour window. This type of high-magnitude price action highlights growing sensitivity to macro shifts, liquidity changes, and technical breakdowns.
What Triggered the Volatility in Gold Today?
1. Dollar Strength
The US Dollar Index surged past 105.60, breaking multi-day resistance and triggering flows out of gold. A combination of hawkish Fed tone and sticky inflation concerns may have underpinned this move.
2. Bond Yields Spike
A surge in US 10Y real yields decreased the appeal of gold, which offers no yield. Fast intraday rises in yields are typically met with aggressive gold selling.
3. Liquidity Vacuum + Gamma Flip
Following yesterday’s compressed range, today’s structural break triggered algo-driven volatility and likely options-related gamma flows. Once gold lost 3340, momentum snowballed into a stop cascade.
4. Position Unwinding
The 3435 high earlier this week appears to be a local top. Institutional positioning looks to be unwinding, especially ahead of critical US CPI data and further Fed rhetoric.
What’s Next for Gold?
Gold is currently testing a fragile support zone at 3300–3310. A firm break lower could see price rapidly spill toward 3282, with extension risk down to 3264 — both being institutional demand zones from April.
Key Technical Levels Noted
Current Bias (21:17 UK Time)
Short-term view: Bearish
Price trading below VWAP and daily mid
Structure below 3364/3340 remains broken
Dollar and yields both holding firm = bearish drag on gold
Trade Set Up
Sell into 3318-3322
Set Stop Loss at zone 3332
Staggered Take Profit 3288 zone 1, and Take Profit 3264 as per above.
Gold appears to of lost it’s bullish structure, trade deal today announced with UK/US, improved dollar strength, DXY and US10Y, which are correlated to Dollar performance, and as gold is usually save haven amidst any trade deal, the rational to short overnight, targets further downside potential as sellers defend rallies into the broken support zone.
Could gold rekindle post US session Close?
Unlikely, but see below:
US Session profit taking, 130 point flush in last 24 hours, over 1k pips! Short term traders may cover positions and protect price into the NY Close.
Asia often buys dips, if no major risk overnight, 3300/3288 will be achievable.
If DXY rebounds or stalls, perhaps gold could go for a run/technical bid.
Over sold conditions, short term relief bounce to 3332 wouldn’t surprise me.
However with that said, I do remain Bearish for now.
Structure remains broken, 3340-3364, still well above price and Gold is under the former support level.
Yields and Dollar are still elevated and showing no signs of any reversal.
Price struggling to hold over 3310, if bulls had control, we’ve be seeing a elevated price now US session winds down.
Asia is so unpredictable, whilst they may drive bids, they also sell hard if US Direction is dominant, like today where we’ve had complete upheaval on the charts.
My strategy explained!
Short bias on 3318-3322, with a tight SL of 10 points (100 pips from your entry whichever you catch)
Key here not to sell blindly until we see a pop up to 3318/22. This is our entry before Asia takes over. If price surpasses our zone, and reclaims and holds to 3336/40, bias completely flips back to neutral / bullish, trade invalid.
A mild late session bounce is likely, but until we see a reclaimed structure, that’s our trigger for the sell rally market. This is not a buy the dip idea. The reason I say that is because
We are in mid range, not support or resistance.
No clear confluence, price not reclaimed any structure or broken lower.
We don’t sell here after the move has happened from previous session and certainly not long as we’d be buying into uncertainty.
I advised a wait for bounce into 3318-3322, await price settle, then short if price does not break and hold over 3322.
Then..
If you’re looking to enter on the long, post sell, you must wait to see if price bounces off 3288, and holds, and then long of 3336 is in sight.
I call current zone - no mans land, as blasé as it sounds, we don’t have the answer we need on the technical or fundamental side. So be smart. I have a reminder set for 3318 tonight, and every .5 above that to 3322, so I can enter the trade should price reach our marked zone. Likewise if we don’t see a pop and price moves to 3288 from current 3308, and await to see if price holds or breaks further for a sell to TP2.
I hope this has proved informative and constructive to your trading regime and strategy.
Have a blessed evening.
JW
The JW Trade Centre
Precision. Patience. Profit.
Article Submission; Jordan Webb, Senior Analyst and Consultant FT and CS, TV.
Gold Volatility Erupts - XAU/USD Sheds Over 120 Points in Wild Intra-Day Swing
Date: 08 May 2025 21:17 UK Time | Price: 3308
XAU/USD delivered a day of extraordinary volatility, swinging 126 points from peak to trough within a 19-hour window. This type of high-magnitude price action highlights growing sensitivity to macro shifts, liquidity changes, and technical breakdowns.
What Triggered the Volatility in Gold Today?
1. Dollar Strength
The US Dollar Index surged past 105.60, breaking multi-day resistance and triggering flows out of gold. A combination of hawkish Fed tone and sticky inflation concerns may have underpinned this move.
2. Bond Yields Spike
A surge in US 10Y real yields decreased the appeal of gold, which offers no yield. Fast intraday rises in yields are typically met with aggressive gold selling.
3. Liquidity Vacuum + Gamma Flip
Following yesterday’s compressed range, today’s structural break triggered algo-driven volatility and likely options-related gamma flows. Once gold lost 3340, momentum snowballed into a stop cascade.
4. Position Unwinding
The 3435 high earlier this week appears to be a local top. Institutional positioning looks to be unwinding, especially ahead of critical US CPI data and further Fed rhetoric.
What’s Next for Gold?
Gold is currently testing a fragile support zone at 3300–3310. A firm break lower could see price rapidly spill toward 3282, with extension risk down to 3264 — both being institutional demand zones from April.
Key Technical Levels Noted
Current Bias (21:17 UK Time)
Short-term view: Bearish
Price trading below VWAP and daily mid
Structure below 3364/3340 remains broken
Dollar and yields both holding firm = bearish drag on gold
Trade Set Up
Sell into 3318-3322
Set Stop Loss at zone 3332
Staggered Take Profit 3288 zone 1, and Take Profit 3264 as per above.
Gold appears to of lost it’s bullish structure, trade deal today announced with UK/US, improved dollar strength, DXY and US10Y, which are correlated to Dollar performance, and as gold is usually save haven amidst any trade deal, the rational to short overnight, targets further downside potential as sellers defend rallies into the broken support zone.
Could gold rekindle post US session Close?
Unlikely, but see below:
US Session profit taking, 130 point flush in last 24 hours, over 1k pips! Short term traders may cover positions and protect price into the NY Close.
Asia often buys dips, if no major risk overnight, 3300/3288 will be achievable.
If DXY rebounds or stalls, perhaps gold could go for a run/technical bid.
Over sold conditions, short term relief bounce to 3332 wouldn’t surprise me.
However with that said, I do remain Bearish for now.
Structure remains broken, 3340-3364, still well above price and Gold is under the former support level.
Yields and Dollar are still elevated and showing no signs of any reversal.
Price struggling to hold over 3310, if bulls had control, we’ve be seeing a elevated price now US session winds down.
Asia is so unpredictable, whilst they may drive bids, they also sell hard if US Direction is dominant, like today where we’ve had complete upheaval on the charts.
My strategy explained!
Short bias on 3318-3322, with a tight SL of 10 points (100 pips from your entry whichever you catch)
Key here not to sell blindly until we see a pop up to 3318/22. This is our entry before Asia takes over. If price surpasses our zone, and reclaims and holds to 3336/40, bias completely flips back to neutral / bullish, trade invalid.
A mild late session bounce is likely, but until we see a reclaimed structure, that’s our trigger for the sell rally market. This is not a buy the dip idea. The reason I say that is because
We are in mid range, not support or resistance.
No clear confluence, price not reclaimed any structure or broken lower.
We don’t sell here after the move has happened from previous session and certainly not long as we’d be buying into uncertainty.
I advised a wait for bounce into 3318-3322, await price settle, then short if price does not break and hold over 3322.
Then..
If you’re looking to enter on the long, post sell, you must wait to see if price bounces off 3288, and holds, and then long of 3336 is in sight.
I call current zone - no mans land, as blasé as it sounds, we don’t have the answer we need on the technical or fundamental side. So be smart. I have a reminder set for 3318 tonight, and every .5 above that to 3322, so I can enter the trade should price reach our marked zone. Likewise if we don’t see a pop and price moves to 3288 from current 3308, and await to see if price holds or breaks further for a sell to TP2.
I hope this has proved informative and constructive to your trading regime and strategy.
Have a blessed evening.
JW
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.