GOLD NEW ATH OR BACK TO TREND?
Gold having recently fallen 11% from its all time high (US$2075) back in August is interesting.
Usually used as a Hedge during times of high volatility in the markets, gold is taking what looks to be a serious retrace after 2 years of mostly uninterrupted growth.
What's interesting is that the markets across the world have become inherently more unstable due to local government restrictions and the economic fallout of Covid19.
The real unknown is where to from now.
The US will hit approx $3.3 trillion annual debt deficit ending September 2020 which is the largest ever recorded, and spending has no end in site. Will the US continue to dig themselves into a hole and what will this mean for the price of gold?
Above are some bar patterns taken from 2010-2015.
Scenario A (ORANGE): Shows increasing growth after a mild retrace after 700 days as depicted between OCT 2008- NOV 2010. Again retesting US$2075 & consolidating against Uptrend Channel Resistance, before breaking through to reach new ATHs
Considering we have only seen an 81.6% rise in price over the last 2 years compared to the run of 2008-2011 (180%), it is fair to say we still have more left in the tank to test ATH territory? Especially with the 2020 US Presidential Election looming.
Scenario B (BLUE): Shows support being found around a potential Equilibrium at US$1770, which also happens to be a key Fib Retracement level 0.5 (Extension form 16/03/2020 to ATH) and bouncing. Followed by a drop after the Presidential Election Results causing a range to be form between $1700-1900.
Eventually breaking resistance and the Ichimoku Cloud to fall back to previous support & the long term uptrend trendline.
All Hypothetical & Spec but interested to see everyones long term targets and explanations.
These Ideas are NOT 'Financial Advice'!. Scenarios are based off a mixture of TA and Fundamentals current at the time. All IMO GLTA. Happy Hunting!!! *Prices will differ depending on charts used
Usually used as a Hedge during times of high volatility in the markets, gold is taking what looks to be a serious retrace after 2 years of mostly uninterrupted growth.
What's interesting is that the markets across the world have become inherently more unstable due to local government restrictions and the economic fallout of Covid19.
The real unknown is where to from now.
The US will hit approx $3.3 trillion annual debt deficit ending September 2020 which is the largest ever recorded, and spending has no end in site. Will the US continue to dig themselves into a hole and what will this mean for the price of gold?
Above are some bar patterns taken from 2010-2015.
Scenario A (ORANGE): Shows increasing growth after a mild retrace after 700 days as depicted between OCT 2008- NOV 2010. Again retesting US$2075 & consolidating against Uptrend Channel Resistance, before breaking through to reach new ATHs
Considering we have only seen an 81.6% rise in price over the last 2 years compared to the run of 2008-2011 (180%), it is fair to say we still have more left in the tank to test ATH territory? Especially with the 2020 US Presidential Election looming.
Scenario B (BLUE): Shows support being found around a potential Equilibrium at US$1770, which also happens to be a key Fib Retracement level 0.5 (Extension form 16/03/2020 to ATH) and bouncing. Followed by a drop after the Presidential Election Results causing a range to be form between $1700-1900.
Eventually breaking resistance and the Ichimoku Cloud to fall back to previous support & the long term uptrend trendline.
All Hypothetical & Spec but interested to see everyones long term targets and explanations.
These Ideas are NOT 'Financial Advice'!. Scenarios are based off a mixture of TA and Fundamentals current at the time. All IMO GLTA. Happy Hunting!!! *Prices will differ depending on charts used
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.