Being one of those instances were a few micro level invalidations reverberates throughout both short-term and long-term analysis, I've adjusted my Gold (
XAUUSD) wavemap a bit. On my last shared idea, I was under the impression that Gold would make a big stretch upwards through the middle range of the $2000s before meeting its next considerable resistance level however, re-checking the count from last year's bottom near $1620 I am led to believe differently. I have cancelled the last idea and shared this one under a new thread due to drastic differences in mid-micro wave expectations.
It seemed that a XAU route to $17xx was off limits but with a likely correction soon to come, $1800 may be the minimally expected correction level, making it very possible that Gold could slip into the $178x-$179x range before finding its ground again. Some believe that a $3K ticket could come for XAUUSD in the years ahead, based on the technicals, I am doubtful of this outcome. Instead, considering the already developed internals of the pink wave structure, $2298-$2442 are very much within the expected range based on common fib levels. To also consider the length of the apparent Wave A move in yellow, if Wave C were to match this length, we could see a maximal price tag near $2696.
The observed RSI divergence should continue to remain tru as commonly seen in Wave 5 (when compared to Wave 3). I suspect that the $2298-$2696 price tag could be reached between 2025 and 2026 though timing is always tricky to accurate gauge. Surf well :)
XAUUSD) wavemap a bit. On my last shared idea, I was under the impression that Gold would make a big stretch upwards through the middle range of the $2000s before meeting its next considerable resistance level however, re-checking the count from last year's bottom near $1620 I am led to believe differently. I have cancelled the last idea and shared this one under a new thread due to drastic differences in mid-micro wave expectations.It seemed that a XAU route to $17xx was off limits but with a likely correction soon to come, $1800 may be the minimally expected correction level, making it very possible that Gold could slip into the $178x-$179x range before finding its ground again. Some believe that a $3K ticket could come for XAUUSD in the years ahead, based on the technicals, I am doubtful of this outcome. Instead, considering the already developed internals of the pink wave structure, $2298-$2442 are very much within the expected range based on common fib levels. To also consider the length of the apparent Wave A move in yellow, if Wave C were to match this length, we could see a maximal price tag near $2696.
The observed RSI divergence should continue to remain tru as commonly seen in Wave 5 (when compared to Wave 3). I suspect that the $2298-$2696 price tag could be reached between 2025 and 2026 though timing is always tricky to accurate gauge. Surf well :)
Note
Considering Gold's price action since October of 2022, it seems that a 5-wave impulsive cycle has completed. To consider the size of this 5-wave impulsive move, the correction in Wave 2 most commonly retraces to the 0.50-0.786 fib range. These levels are highlighted on this chart by green and yellow lines.This information is mentioned in the text above as well however, this graph puts a better visual on the idea. Surf well.
Note
The 5ith sub-wave of Wave 5 has yet to complete for Gold. According to the structure and levels of the micro-waves, it should reach minimally towards $2018 before the correction begins to take form.Note
Expected macro correction levels are generally unchanged.Note
Varying degrees of resistance sit between $2030 and $2060. I am doubtful that buyers will be able to force price action above this range and will once again start to look for short entries here.Note
Considering last night's price action, XAU has lost upside support in the nearby region and a return to $1800 should now be confirmed to be underway.Note
We'll soon see if the trend is truly our friend...Note
Potential triangle wave spotted. Unless Gold breaks below the red line, it can be assumed that a higher push into the $2000s will come.A triangle wave signifies increased probability that the current trend (up) is soon to end.
Note
If the trend is your friend.Note
Surfers are gonna play the double top looking move… Note
It seems that my previous idea of Gold hitting $2050-$2060 was correct (and the other idea which was posted after it, was not).Sub-wave 5 within the bigger Wave 1 move should now be concluded. Wave 2 should retrace back to the level of $1830. This is a common fib based target however, depending on the correctional wave type, support could be found above 10% higher than $1830. In either case, the bears should strike from the $2050-$2060 range.
Note
Due to the observed fractal wave in the final 5th wave of this segment, Wave 5 must be longer than Wave 3. Expect to see $2073 at minimum before Bears officially arrive to the party.Note
Seems like Gold is still waiting on the last pump up to $2073ish. Expect heavy shorts to activate from there.Note
Lowering upside target to $2500, but Gold should first fall below $1900 at some point in February.
Decode the wave, anticipate the move. elliottwavescience.com
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Decode the wave, anticipate the move. elliottwavescience.com
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.