Bigger picture on Gold (restated)
Everyone is bullish on gold.
- Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) is at 91% level which is extreme.
- Ray Dalio says 'gold will be a top investment' in his post. linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/.
- The colleague of mine who watches thegoldforecast.com has an Elliott Wave count suggesting that we are at the beginning of 5th wave which will carry the price well above the previous high.
For a contrarian, these are all red flags.
I have been struggling to interpret the previous Elliott Wave count in gold. Elliottwave.com suggest it is ABCDE. I do not like it because it does not 'look and feel' as ABCDE.
Today I was playing with the chart when it suddenly 'clicked in'. The Weekly chart looks neat and harmonised (W)=(Y) and W=Y in (Y). Daily is a lot more choppy but still satisfies wave count criteria. If I am right and previous correction is a series of WXY waves we can be at the top of wave B (circled).
This is not a trading idea (yet). I will be watching for a confirmation of the top and then seeking trading setups to short the market in the coming weeks.
- Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) is at 91% level which is extreme.
- Ray Dalio says 'gold will be a top investment' in his post. linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/.
- The colleague of mine who watches thegoldforecast.com has an Elliott Wave count suggesting that we are at the beginning of 5th wave which will carry the price well above the previous high.
For a contrarian, these are all red flags.
I have been struggling to interpret the previous Elliott Wave count in gold. Elliottwave.com suggest it is ABCDE. I do not like it because it does not 'look and feel' as ABCDE.
Today I was playing with the chart when it suddenly 'clicked in'. The Weekly chart looks neat and harmonised (W)=(Y) and W=Y in (Y). Daily is a lot more choppy but still satisfies wave count criteria. If I am right and previous correction is a series of WXY waves we can be at the top of wave B (circled).
This is not a trading idea (yet). I will be watching for a confirmation of the top and then seeking trading setups to short the market in the coming weeks.
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⏱️ Timely updates of WTI, Gasoil, NatGas charts explaining every twist
🗃️ Extensive analysis archives
📏 Chartopedia, with examples of applying ElliottWave to real world charts
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