DAILY TACTICAL ANALYSIS – XAUUSD – May 6, 2025 (Cairo Time GMT+3)
XAUM0 Verdict:
🔵 Bulls: Have the edge. Structure and indicators say "Go." But they must show volume strength at NY Open or get trapped.
🔴 Bears: Will get one shot at Red Zone (3,387+). If price gets rejected there with RVOL spike and reversal candle → ride the short wave back to 3,355.
⏳Time Bomb: NY Open — that’s where the lie is exposed. Wait for confirmation. Be ruthless.
🕒 HOURLY SESSION BEHAVIOR MAP
London Open (10:00 Cairo)
Expect reactive volatility; test into Yellow Zone.
Watch VWAP test and cloud flat-top reaction.
Pre-New York (14:00–15:30)
Trap behavior. Sweep below Conversion Line (3,356) then spring.
Ichimoku shows bullish TK Cross. Volume divergence may fakeout sellers.
New York Open (15:30)
Decision zone. Break of Green or rejection from Red.
Volume MA is key: if above 22K, STRIKE; if flat, DEFEND.
New York Close (22:00)
Likely to range after directional move is completed. Scalp or flatten swing.
==========================
✅ 1. Price Action Patterns
Tight coil after impulse up — consolidation above Ichimoku Kumo cloud on 1H and 4H.
Breakout candle (bullish engulfing) on daily from May 3–May 6 → indicates bullish control.
Repeated equal highs at 3,367–3,368 = liquidity magnet. Watch for fake break then dump or clean breakout continuation.
🔄 2. Range-Bound Dynamics
Compression range:
Support: 3,355–3,356
Resistance: 3,368–3,370
Inside this box → it's a battlefield.
Above 3,368 = breakout.
Below 3,355 = fade dump incoming.
⚠️ NY session will be the trigger — London is setup.
🔥 3. Trend Analysis
Short-term trend: Bullish
Mid-term trend: Neutral → forming base
Long-term trend: Bullish recovery phase from April low (massive V-shape reversal off demand zone)
EMA Stacks (4H/1D):
All EMAs pointing up, price stacked → bullish structure
📊 4. Volume Analysis
Accumulation Phase Confirmed:
Massive buying under cloud, now springing up
No sell climax yet = buyers in control
Volume spike + candle body = legit move.
🌊 5. Wave Analysis
This is Wave 3 of 5 in impulse cycle post-April bottom.
Wave 1 = impulse rally
Wave 2 = pullback (inside Kumo)
Wave 3 now emerging with target near 3,388–3,400
If fails → early termination → dump back to 3,320 zone.
🧩 6. Harmonic Pattern Read
Potential Bearish Bat forming on Daily
XA = 3200 to 3360
AB = 3360 to 3270
BC = 3270 to 3368 (current)
If it hits 3,387–3,390 = perfect D point → time to SHORT HARD
🎯 FINAL STRATEGIC OUTLOOK: BATTLE MAP
Zone Action Justification
3,368+ Buy Stop Breakout Above structure + volume confirmation
3,355 Liquidity Sweep Buy Trap & spring with LTF divergence
3,387+ Sell Limit Supply wall, Harmonic D-point
3,344 Crash Zone Below cloud, momentum dies, dump begins
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO
Expect:
Pullback to Conversion Line ~3,356 → Spring
Ichimoku Cloud showing bullish Kumo twist and bullish price outside cloud
Volume spike confirms breakout above 3,368
Tactical Entry (Breakout Play)
Type of Entry: Buy Stop
Entry Price: 3,368.10
Stop Loss (SL): 3,354.00
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,378.00
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,387.00
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,400.00
Confidence Level: 85%
Justification: Bullish structure + breakout above XAUMO Green Zone + volume + Ichimoku TK Cross + price above Kumo.
🔻 BEARISH SCENARIO
Expect:
Price rejects above 3,387
Massive wick and return to base at 3,355
Volume divergence + RVOL spike signals trap
Tactical Entry (Rejection Play)
Type of Entry: Sell Limit
Entry Price: 3,387.00
Stop Loss (SL): 3,395.00
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,368.00
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,356.00
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,340.00
Confidence Level: 75%
Justification: Supply rejection zone + multiple timeframe exhaustion + RVOL peak divergence + confirmed bearish momentum.
⏱️ EXECUTION TIMING GUIDE
✅ STRIKE:
At NY Open if volume spikes & price breaks 3,368 cleanly.
If breakout retests Green Zone + holds — reload.
🛡️ DEFEND:
If price whipsaws above 3,368 without volume confirmation. Wait for confirmation.
If Red Zone hit with low RVOL — fade it.
⚔️ SCALP:
3,356 – 3,359 zone if high wick traps and quick reversal printed.
🧱 SWING:
Only if NY closes above 3,368 or rejects 3,387 hard — otherwise intraday only.
XAUM0 Verdict:
🔵 Bulls: Have the edge. Structure and indicators say "Go." But they must show volume strength at NY Open or get trapped.
🔴 Bears: Will get one shot at Red Zone (3,387+). If price gets rejected there with RVOL spike and reversal candle → ride the short wave back to 3,355.
⏳Time Bomb: NY Open — that’s where the lie is exposed. Wait for confirmation. Be ruthless.
🕒 HOURLY SESSION BEHAVIOR MAP
London Open (10:00 Cairo)
Expect reactive volatility; test into Yellow Zone.
Watch VWAP test and cloud flat-top reaction.
Pre-New York (14:00–15:30)
Trap behavior. Sweep below Conversion Line (3,356) then spring.
Ichimoku shows bullish TK Cross. Volume divergence may fakeout sellers.
New York Open (15:30)
Decision zone. Break of Green or rejection from Red.
Volume MA is key: if above 22K, STRIKE; if flat, DEFEND.
New York Close (22:00)
Likely to range after directional move is completed. Scalp or flatten swing.
==========================
✅ 1. Price Action Patterns
Tight coil after impulse up — consolidation above Ichimoku Kumo cloud on 1H and 4H.
Breakout candle (bullish engulfing) on daily from May 3–May 6 → indicates bullish control.
Repeated equal highs at 3,367–3,368 = liquidity magnet. Watch for fake break then dump or clean breakout continuation.
🔄 2. Range-Bound Dynamics
Compression range:
Support: 3,355–3,356
Resistance: 3,368–3,370
Inside this box → it's a battlefield.
Above 3,368 = breakout.
Below 3,355 = fade dump incoming.
⚠️ NY session will be the trigger — London is setup.
🔥 3. Trend Analysis
Short-term trend: Bullish
Mid-term trend: Neutral → forming base
Long-term trend: Bullish recovery phase from April low (massive V-shape reversal off demand zone)
EMA Stacks (4H/1D):
All EMAs pointing up, price stacked → bullish structure
📊 4. Volume Analysis
Accumulation Phase Confirmed:
Massive buying under cloud, now springing up
No sell climax yet = buyers in control
Volume spike + candle body = legit move.
🌊 5. Wave Analysis
This is Wave 3 of 5 in impulse cycle post-April bottom.
Wave 1 = impulse rally
Wave 2 = pullback (inside Kumo)
Wave 3 now emerging with target near 3,388–3,400
If fails → early termination → dump back to 3,320 zone.
🧩 6. Harmonic Pattern Read
Potential Bearish Bat forming on Daily
XA = 3200 to 3360
AB = 3360 to 3270
BC = 3270 to 3368 (current)
If it hits 3,387–3,390 = perfect D point → time to SHORT HARD
🎯 FINAL STRATEGIC OUTLOOK: BATTLE MAP
Zone Action Justification
3,368+ Buy Stop Breakout Above structure + volume confirmation
3,355 Liquidity Sweep Buy Trap & spring with LTF divergence
3,387+ Sell Limit Supply wall, Harmonic D-point
3,344 Crash Zone Below cloud, momentum dies, dump begins
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO
Expect:
Pullback to Conversion Line ~3,356 → Spring
Ichimoku Cloud showing bullish Kumo twist and bullish price outside cloud
Volume spike confirms breakout above 3,368
Tactical Entry (Breakout Play)
Type of Entry: Buy Stop
Entry Price: 3,368.10
Stop Loss (SL): 3,354.00
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,378.00
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,387.00
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,400.00
Confidence Level: 85%
Justification: Bullish structure + breakout above XAUMO Green Zone + volume + Ichimoku TK Cross + price above Kumo.
🔻 BEARISH SCENARIO
Expect:
Price rejects above 3,387
Massive wick and return to base at 3,355
Volume divergence + RVOL spike signals trap
Tactical Entry (Rejection Play)
Type of Entry: Sell Limit
Entry Price: 3,387.00
Stop Loss (SL): 3,395.00
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,368.00
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,356.00
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,340.00
Confidence Level: 75%
Justification: Supply rejection zone + multiple timeframe exhaustion + RVOL peak divergence + confirmed bearish momentum.
⏱️ EXECUTION TIMING GUIDE
✅ STRIKE:
At NY Open if volume spikes & price breaks 3,368 cleanly.
If breakout retests Green Zone + holds — reload.
🛡️ DEFEND:
If price whipsaws above 3,368 without volume confirmation. Wait for confirmation.
If Red Zone hit with low RVOL — fade it.
⚔️ SCALP:
3,356 – 3,359 zone if high wick traps and quick reversal printed.
🧱 SWING:
Only if NY closes above 3,368 or rejects 3,387 hard — otherwise intraday only.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.