Today, the market focuses on the US non-farm payrolls data for March, including key indicators such as unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls and wage growth. The market generally expects:
The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.9%
The number of farm payrolls may be lower than the previous value of 275,000
The average hourly wage growth rate may slow down
From the perspective of expectations, the data is generally favorable for gold. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the ADP employment data released this week performed strongly. If today's non-farm payrolls are also better than expected, it may put pressure on gold prices. Therefore, it is expected that gold will maintain a volatile pattern during the day, waiting for data guidance.
Technical analysis
Daily level:
Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated violently, first falling from the high of 3167 to the low of 3062, a drop of $1,000, and then rebounding strongly from the low of 3054 to 3135 during the US trading period, and finally closed at around 3100
The daily line formed a large negative line with an ultra-long lower shadow, showing a fierce battle between bulls and bears
$3100 became a key psychological barrier, which was both the low point of yesterday's retracement and the previous double bottom support
1-hour level: The moving average system showed signs of turning downward, and the downward trend line suppression level moved down to around 3108
Key price
Upper resistance: 3108 (trend line suppression) → 3135 (yesterday's US trading high)
Lower support: 3100 (psychological barrier) → 3085 → 3057/3054 (top and bottom conversion position)
Trading strategy
Short strategy:
Entry point: around 3108 (trend line suppression)
Stop loss: above 3118
Target: around 3060
Applicable conditions: no strong breakthrough in European session
Long strategy:
First look at 3100 support, and try long with a light position if it stabilizes
If it falls below 3100, pay attention to the support level of 3085/3057
For a better profit and loss ratio, you can consider arranging mid-term long orders
Risk warning
Non-agricultural data may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see before the data
If the European session breaks through the suppression of 3118, you need to give up the idea of short orders
Strictly control stop loss and guard against false breakthrough risks
Pay attention to the impact of the difference between the actual value of the data and the expectation on the market
Summary
Gold has entered the consolidation stage after experiencing a huge shock of 100 points. Non-agricultural data may become a key factor in breaking the current balance. Suggestions for investors:
3108 is the watershed for the Asian and European sessions, and high-altitude trading is the main focus
Adjust positions before the US session to cope with the non-agricultural market
Focus on the breakthrough of 3100 support and 3108 resistance
Flexibly adjust strategies based on actual performance after data is released
The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.9%
The number of farm payrolls may be lower than the previous value of 275,000
The average hourly wage growth rate may slow down
From the perspective of expectations, the data is generally favorable for gold. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the ADP employment data released this week performed strongly. If today's non-farm payrolls are also better than expected, it may put pressure on gold prices. Therefore, it is expected that gold will maintain a volatile pattern during the day, waiting for data guidance.
Technical analysis
Daily level:
Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated violently, first falling from the high of 3167 to the low of 3062, a drop of $1,000, and then rebounding strongly from the low of 3054 to 3135 during the US trading period, and finally closed at around 3100
The daily line formed a large negative line with an ultra-long lower shadow, showing a fierce battle between bulls and bears
$3100 became a key psychological barrier, which was both the low point of yesterday's retracement and the previous double bottom support
1-hour level: The moving average system showed signs of turning downward, and the downward trend line suppression level moved down to around 3108
Key price
Upper resistance: 3108 (trend line suppression) → 3135 (yesterday's US trading high)
Lower support: 3100 (psychological barrier) → 3085 → 3057/3054 (top and bottom conversion position)
Trading strategy
Short strategy:
Entry point: around 3108 (trend line suppression)
Stop loss: above 3118
Target: around 3060
Applicable conditions: no strong breakthrough in European session
Long strategy:
First look at 3100 support, and try long with a light position if it stabilizes
If it falls below 3100, pay attention to the support level of 3085/3057
For a better profit and loss ratio, you can consider arranging mid-term long orders
Risk warning
Non-agricultural data may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see before the data
If the European session breaks through the suppression of 3118, you need to give up the idea of short orders
Strictly control stop loss and guard against false breakthrough risks
Pay attention to the impact of the difference between the actual value of the data and the expectation on the market
Summary
Gold has entered the consolidation stage after experiencing a huge shock of 100 points. Non-agricultural data may become a key factor in breaking the current balance. Suggestions for investors:
3108 is the watershed for the Asian and European sessions, and high-altitude trading is the main focus
Adjust positions before the US session to cope with the non-agricultural market
Focus on the breakthrough of 3100 support and 3108 resistance
Flexibly adjust strategies based on actual performance after data is released
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.