Updated NYC Outlook for XAU/USD
As of Current Price ~$2,626 (NYC Pre-Market, Jan 6, 2025)
Market Context for NYC Session
Daily Chart:
Consolidation with bearish pressure. Key support levels around $2,625 and $2,610.
RSI on daily near 40, suggesting downward momentum may persist.
4H Chart:
Clear lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) forming, aligning with bearish trend continuation.
VWAP Lower Band around $2,621 acting as dynamic support.
1H and 30M Charts (Primary NYC Timeframes):
Bearish Momentum:
RSI on 30M and 1H below 40.
MACD histogram is deep in the negative, showing no signs of bullish reversal yet.
Strong resistance at $2,637 (prior support) and $2,645.
Volume:
Decreasing into NYC open, signaling potential for high volatility breakout in either direction.
Updated NYC Scenarios (Sorted by Likelihood)
1. Breakout Below $2,625 (Most Likely)
Entry Type: Short Breakout.
Trigger:
Price closes below $2,625 on 30M with volume spike.
RSI remains below 35, confirming bearish momentum.
Order Type: Sell Stop at $2,624.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,630.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,621 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,615 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
TP3: $2,610 (Sell remaining 20%, 0.2 lots).
Confidence Level: 90%
NYC Session Rationale:
Momentum is bearish, and the NYC session often sees continuation of earlier trends.
$2,625 is a critical pivot; a break signals more selling pressure.
2. Retest of $2,637 and Rejection (Second Most Likely)
Entry Type: Short Rejection.
Trigger:
Price retests $2,637 but fails to break above.
Shooting star or bearish engulfing candlestick forms on 30M.
Order Type: Sell Limit at $2,637.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,645.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,630 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,625 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
TP3: $2,621 (Sell remaining 20%, 0.2 lots).
Confidence Level: 85%
NYC Session Rationale:
$2,637 has flipped to strong resistance, and bearish momentum is likely to push price lower after a failed retest.
3. Continuation Below $2,621 to $2,610 (Likely)
Entry Type: Short Continuation.
Trigger:
Price breaks below $2,621 (VWAP Lower Band) with volume and sustained RSI < 35.
Order Type: Sell Stop at $2,620.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,630.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,615 (Sell 60%, 0.6 lots).
TP2: $2,610 (Sell 40%, 0.4 lots).
Confidence Level: 85%
NYC Session Rationale:
If $2,621 breaks, the next logical support is $2,610 (161.8% Fibonacci extension).
4. Reversal at $2,621 (Moderate Probability)
Entry Type: Long Reversal.
Trigger:
Price touches $2,621 and forms a bullish reversal candlestick (e.g., pin bar or engulfing).
RSI divergence detected (price lower low, RSI higher low).
Order Type: Buy Limit at $2,621.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,615.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,630 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,637 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
Confidence Level: 75%
NYC Session Rationale:
$2,621 acts as dynamic VWAP support; bulls may try to defend this level before further downside.
5. Breakout Above $2,637 (Less Likely)
Entry Type: Long Momentum.
Trigger:
Price closes above $2,637 on 30M with high volume.
RSI flips above 50, signaling bullish momentum.
Order Type: Buy Stop at $2,638.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,630.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,645 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,648 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
TP3: $2,655 (Sell remaining 20%, 0.2 lots).
Confidence Level: 65%
NYC Session Rationale:
The NYC session is typically momentum-driven, but bearish pressure makes a breakout less likely.
6. Spike and Rejection at $2,645 (Unlikely but Possible)
Entry Type: Short Rejection.
Trigger:
Price spikes to $2,645 but fails to hold.
Shooting star or bearish engulfing forms on 30M.
Order Type: Sell Limit at $2,645.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,655.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,637 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,630 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
Confidence Level: 60%
NYC Session Rationale:
Rejection at $2,645 aligns with bearish momentum, but price reaching this level is unlikely given current pressure.
Most Likely NYC Scenario
Breakout Below $2,625 (90% Confidence Level):
The bearish trend continues with high probability, especially as momentum accelerates in the NYC session.
Rejection at $2,637 (85% Confidence Level):
A retest of $2,637 offers a strong shorting opportunity, aligned with bearish rejection patterns.
As of Current Price ~$2,626 (NYC Pre-Market, Jan 6, 2025)
Market Context for NYC Session
Daily Chart:
Consolidation with bearish pressure. Key support levels around $2,625 and $2,610.
RSI on daily near 40, suggesting downward momentum may persist.
4H Chart:
Clear lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) forming, aligning with bearish trend continuation.
VWAP Lower Band around $2,621 acting as dynamic support.
1H and 30M Charts (Primary NYC Timeframes):
Bearish Momentum:
RSI on 30M and 1H below 40.
MACD histogram is deep in the negative, showing no signs of bullish reversal yet.
Strong resistance at $2,637 (prior support) and $2,645.
Volume:
Decreasing into NYC open, signaling potential for high volatility breakout in either direction.
Updated NYC Scenarios (Sorted by Likelihood)
1. Breakout Below $2,625 (Most Likely)
Entry Type: Short Breakout.
Trigger:
Price closes below $2,625 on 30M with volume spike.
RSI remains below 35, confirming bearish momentum.
Order Type: Sell Stop at $2,624.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,630.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,621 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,615 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
TP3: $2,610 (Sell remaining 20%, 0.2 lots).
Confidence Level: 90%
NYC Session Rationale:
Momentum is bearish, and the NYC session often sees continuation of earlier trends.
$2,625 is a critical pivot; a break signals more selling pressure.
2. Retest of $2,637 and Rejection (Second Most Likely)
Entry Type: Short Rejection.
Trigger:
Price retests $2,637 but fails to break above.
Shooting star or bearish engulfing candlestick forms on 30M.
Order Type: Sell Limit at $2,637.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,645.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,630 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,625 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
TP3: $2,621 (Sell remaining 20%, 0.2 lots).
Confidence Level: 85%
NYC Session Rationale:
$2,637 has flipped to strong resistance, and bearish momentum is likely to push price lower after a failed retest.
3. Continuation Below $2,621 to $2,610 (Likely)
Entry Type: Short Continuation.
Trigger:
Price breaks below $2,621 (VWAP Lower Band) with volume and sustained RSI < 35.
Order Type: Sell Stop at $2,620.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,630.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,615 (Sell 60%, 0.6 lots).
TP2: $2,610 (Sell 40%, 0.4 lots).
Confidence Level: 85%
NYC Session Rationale:
If $2,621 breaks, the next logical support is $2,610 (161.8% Fibonacci extension).
4. Reversal at $2,621 (Moderate Probability)
Entry Type: Long Reversal.
Trigger:
Price touches $2,621 and forms a bullish reversal candlestick (e.g., pin bar or engulfing).
RSI divergence detected (price lower low, RSI higher low).
Order Type: Buy Limit at $2,621.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,615.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,630 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,637 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
Confidence Level: 75%
NYC Session Rationale:
$2,621 acts as dynamic VWAP support; bulls may try to defend this level before further downside.
5. Breakout Above $2,637 (Less Likely)
Entry Type: Long Momentum.
Trigger:
Price closes above $2,637 on 30M with high volume.
RSI flips above 50, signaling bullish momentum.
Order Type: Buy Stop at $2,638.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,630.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,645 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,648 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
TP3: $2,655 (Sell remaining 20%, 0.2 lots).
Confidence Level: 65%
NYC Session Rationale:
The NYC session is typically momentum-driven, but bearish pressure makes a breakout less likely.
6. Spike and Rejection at $2,645 (Unlikely but Possible)
Entry Type: Short Rejection.
Trigger:
Price spikes to $2,645 but fails to hold.
Shooting star or bearish engulfing forms on 30M.
Order Type: Sell Limit at $2,645.
Stop Loss (SL): $2,655.
Take Profits (TP):
TP1: $2,637 (Sell 50%, 0.5 lots).
TP2: $2,630 (Sell 30%, 0.3 lots).
Confidence Level: 60%
NYC Session Rationale:
Rejection at $2,645 aligns with bearish momentum, but price reaching this level is unlikely given current pressure.
Most Likely NYC Scenario
Breakout Below $2,625 (90% Confidence Level):
The bearish trend continues with high probability, especially as momentum accelerates in the NYC session.
Rejection at $2,637 (85% Confidence Level):
A retest of $2,637 offers a strong shorting opportunity, aligned with bearish rejection patterns.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.