Gold’s Next Big Move: Rally to $3K or a Sharp Pullback?
The big question on everyone’s mind is whether 
XAUUSD will reach $3,000 in 2025. In my opinion, it probably will.
Looking at the weekly chart, gold has been trading in a well-defined ascending channel for exactly a year. Each time the price dips near the trendline support, buyers step in, keeping the uptrend intact. The last time this happened was at the start of the year, and since then, gold has climbed more than 2800 pips from its low to its Friday's ATH.
With this in mind, we can reasonably expect Gold to maintain its bullish trajectory—an assumption supported not only by technical analysis but also by fundamental factors.
________________________________________
📊 Shorter Time Frame: Signs of Exhaustion?
Although the long-term trend remains bullish, trends are not linear—they consist of ups and downs. If we refine our analysis to a shorter time frame, the situation looks a bit different.
• The 4-hour chart still reflects a strong uptrend that began earlier this year.
• However, last week, signs of exhaustion emerged:
- Tuesday’s all-time high of $2,880 was followed by a normal pullback to the $2,840 zone (which I highlighted in last week’s analysis).
- On Friday, a new ATH near $2,890 was reached, but the market saw a sharp reversal after the initial NFP-driven rally, with further weakness into the closing hours.
________________________________________
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• Support Levels:
- $2,840–$2,835 (previous support zone)
- $2,800 (psychological level)
- $2,775–$2,760 (deeper retracement area)
• Resistance Levels:
- $2,890 (recent ATH)
- $2,900 (psychological barrier)
- $2,980–$3,000 (major upside target)
________________________________________
🎯 Potential Trade Setups:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
• If Gold holds above $2,840 and rebounds, a breakout above $2,880–$2,890 could drive prices towards $2,900+, with the final target at $3,000.
🚨 Bearish Scenario:
• If gold fails to hold $2,840, a deeper pullback to $2,800–$2,775 is likely.
• A weekly close below $2,800 could trigger an extended correction toward $2,760.
________________________________________
📉 My Strategy for Next Week:
While the long-term uptrend remains intact, I anticipate a short-term correction.
• I will be looking to sell rallies, targeting a pullback toward $2,800 or slightly below.
• If Gold tests key support and shows strength, I’ll switch to a buy-the-dip approach for the next leg higher.
⚠️ Note: This is a high-risk strategy, as we are still in a strong bull market. Proper risk management is essential.
Regards!
Mihai Iacob
XAUUSD will reach $3,000 in 2025. In my opinion, it probably will.Looking at the weekly chart, gold has been trading in a well-defined ascending channel for exactly a year. Each time the price dips near the trendline support, buyers step in, keeping the uptrend intact. The last time this happened was at the start of the year, and since then, gold has climbed more than 2800 pips from its low to its Friday's ATH.
With this in mind, we can reasonably expect Gold to maintain its bullish trajectory—an assumption supported not only by technical analysis but also by fundamental factors.
________________________________________
📊 Shorter Time Frame: Signs of Exhaustion?
Although the long-term trend remains bullish, trends are not linear—they consist of ups and downs. If we refine our analysis to a shorter time frame, the situation looks a bit different.
• The 4-hour chart still reflects a strong uptrend that began earlier this year.
• However, last week, signs of exhaustion emerged:
- Tuesday’s all-time high of $2,880 was followed by a normal pullback to the $2,840 zone (which I highlighted in last week’s analysis).
- On Friday, a new ATH near $2,890 was reached, but the market saw a sharp reversal after the initial NFP-driven rally, with further weakness into the closing hours.
________________________________________
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• Support Levels:
- $2,840–$2,835 (previous support zone)
- $2,800 (psychological level)
- $2,775–$2,760 (deeper retracement area)
• Resistance Levels:
- $2,890 (recent ATH)
- $2,900 (psychological barrier)
- $2,980–$3,000 (major upside target)
________________________________________
🎯 Potential Trade Setups:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
• If Gold holds above $2,840 and rebounds, a breakout above $2,880–$2,890 could drive prices towards $2,900+, with the final target at $3,000.
🚨 Bearish Scenario:
• If gold fails to hold $2,840, a deeper pullback to $2,800–$2,775 is likely.
• A weekly close below $2,800 could trigger an extended correction toward $2,760.
________________________________________
📉 My Strategy for Next Week:
While the long-term uptrend remains intact, I anticipate a short-term correction.
• I will be looking to sell rallies, targeting a pullback toward $2,800 or slightly below.
• If Gold tests key support and shows strength, I’ll switch to a buy-the-dip approach for the next leg higher.
⚠️ Note: This is a high-risk strategy, as we are still in a strong bull market. Proper risk management is essential.
Regards!
Mihai Iacob
Note
The price looks ready for a new ATH before reversal.
I'm looking for signs of weakness around 2900 and slightly above
Trade active
Gold has started the week with a new ATH
However, as explained, I expect a strong correction from the price and I'm preparing to sell rallies
📈 Forex & XAU/USD Channel:
t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Crypto Channel:
t.me/FanCryptocurrency
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Forex & XAU/USD Channel:
t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Crypto Channel:
t.me/FanCryptocurrency
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.