After gold broke through strongly, pay attention to key resistance and correction risks
I. Market dynamics and fundamental drivers
Safe-haven demand and weaker US dollar support gold prices
Gold rose sharply by 2.9% on Monday, closing at $3,333.32/ounce. On Tuesday, the Asian and European sessions continued to rise, reaching a high of $3,387/ounce, an increase of more than $50.
Driving factors:
Weak US dollar: The US dollar index continued to fall, boosting the attractiveness of gold.
Geopolitical risks: Tensions in the Middle East and global trade uncertainties (such as the US plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, etc.) have boosted safe-haven demand.
Fed policy expectations: The market is paying attention to the Fed's interest rate decision this week. If it maintains a dovish stance, it may further benefit gold.
Trade policies disturb market sentiment
US President Trump recently stated that he intends to impose tariffs on overseas films, biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors (the tax rate may reach 25%-100%), exacerbating concerns about global trade frictions, and funds are pouring into gold for risk aversion.
2. Technical analysis: short-term strong breakthrough, but beware of correction risks
Daily structure: bulls dominate
Key breakthrough: gold price breaks through 3272 (previous high pressure level) and stands above 3330, confirming the end of the short-term downward trend.
Upward target: If the upward trend continues, the next resistance will be the psychological level of 3400, and the medium-term may challenge 3500 (near the historical high).
Moving average system: 5/10-day moving average golden cross, MACD red column volume, daily level is bullish.
1-hour cycle: overbought signal appears
Asian session high and fall: touched 3387 in the early session and then retreated to 3350, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is temporarily suspended. It is necessary to observe whether the European session can stabilize the 3350 support.
Key watershed:
Support level: 3350 (Asian session low), 3320-3300 (breakthrough conversion support area).
Resistance level: 3386 (61.8% retracement level of the golden ratio), 3400 integer level.
3. Trading strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low
Bull strategy (pullback and long)
Entry area: 3330-3340 (defense below 3300).
Target: 3360-3370, 3380-3400 after breakthrough.
Short strategy (rebound and try short)
Entry area: 3390-3386 (stop loss above 3400).
Target: 3350-3370, 3320-3330 if broken.
Key observation points
European market trend: If the price remains stable above 3350, the upward trend may continue; if it falls below 3350, it may fall back to the support of 3320-3300 in the short term.
Federal Reserve decision: The policy statement on Thursday morning may affect the medium-term direction of gold, beware of volatility amplification.
IV. Risk Warning
Risk of chasing highs: The short-term increase in gold prices is too large, so be wary of technical corrections.
Data disturbance: If the US trade account data exceeds expectations in the evening, it may trigger a rebound in the US dollar and suppress gold.
Trend confirmation: If the gold price stabilizes at 3400, short orders need to stop losses in time; on the contrary, if it loses 3300, the short-term long structure will be destroyed.
Conclusion: The short-term technical side of gold is strong, but there is strong resistance in the 3386-3400 area. It is recommended to focus on low-long corrections, supplemented by short shorts at key pressure levels, and strictly control risks.
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Free Signals：t.me/+86i8swucTrdiYWYx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.