XAUUSD Is it time to go down? Target 2026!
Updated
Gold Trend: The price of gold appears to be in an upward phase, testing $2,050 per troy ounce. This could be influenced by various factors, including expectations regarding inflation, the strength of the dollar, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
Role of the Dollar: Although the US dollar is showing signs of recovery, it remains generally weak. Hopes for an end to the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve may be one of the factors contributing to this weakness.
Federal Reserve Position: Statements from some regional bank presidents of the Federal Reserve indicate a divergence of opinions regarding the future path of monetary policy. While some are confident that inflation will remain under control, others are more cautious and do not rule out further interest rate hikes.
Government Bond Yields: Yields on US government bonds are declining, indicating some caution or concern about the economy. The recent lows in yields may reflect a growing focus on safe-haven assets such as gold.
Upcoming Key Events: Investors seem to be awaiting US inflation data, particularly the October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. A further decrease in inflationary pressure could positively impact the market and pose a threat to the demand for dollars.
Role of the Dollar: Although the US dollar is showing signs of recovery, it remains generally weak. Hopes for an end to the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve may be one of the factors contributing to this weakness.
Federal Reserve Position: Statements from some regional bank presidents of the Federal Reserve indicate a divergence of opinions regarding the future path of monetary policy. While some are confident that inflation will remain under control, others are more cautious and do not rule out further interest rate hikes.
Government Bond Yields: Yields on US government bonds are declining, indicating some caution or concern about the economy. The recent lows in yields may reflect a growing focus on safe-haven assets such as gold.
Upcoming Key Events: Investors seem to be awaiting US inflation data, particularly the October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. A further decrease in inflationary pressure could positively impact the market and pose a threat to the demand for dollars.
Note
The price of gold is consolidating after a retracement from six-month highs, currently awaiting data on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the United States. Gold might experience a retracement before resuming an upward trend, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory. However, the closing of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) above the 200-day SMA could confirm a Golden Cross, indicating potential upward movement. Gold buyers are eyeing $2,070 as resistance and $2,079 as the next target. On the flip side, support is at $2,035, with a possibility of testing $2,012.Gold is reacting to developments in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with expectations of a possible interest rate cut in 2024 despite the upward revision of the U.S. GDP in the third quarter. Inflation data could impact the price of gold, with expectations of a rate cut that could favor the downward trend of the U.S. dollar. However, month-end profit-taking and the dollar's recovery could temporarily influence the price of gold, while investors await statements from the Fed and Jerome Powell's speech.
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