Gold on Intra-day recovery but bias strongly limited
Gold's general commentary: Productive day for both Buyers and Sellers as the Bottom rejection on Daily chart rejected further downtrend and as my #1,882.80 break out point was still not compromised, Gold made it to it almost (Spot prices). The Bullish reaction is due to the Lower High's Lower zone trendline that started with last week’s Low's zone and Higher High's multi-Month peak on DX rejection. Gold firstly invalidated #1,892.80 and #1,882.80 Support zones with the fakeout, engaged the decline which was later-on Bought. This is not the most important Support level though, it is the Hourly 4 chart's #1,877.80. As long as Gold is above it the Hourly 4 chart's Resistance zone will be continuously tested but below it, the goal is the Hourly 4 chart #1,852.980 barrier fractal. My practical suggestion is not to Trade this without breakout points, the times are very Volatile. As discussed, Gold is surely correlated with DX again (February #27 - July #27 sequence), but this time Diagonally (when DX is rising, Gold should decline). DX is taking strong hits and that is the reason behind the strong Volatility Gold is Trading under. Most important pointer is Technical necessity for a Higher Low's test, and Resistance rejection should engage Support test in motion.
Technical analysis: #2 important things on early E.U. opening. #1st, even though the Price-action broken the Lower High's trendline from #1,890’s earlier, it failed to test and break the #1,923.80 - #1,827.80 Resistance zone, so Technically it is still below Higher High’s Lower zone, just non-linear resemblance. As discussed, as long as the #1,923.80 Resistance Zone holds, Gold is Bearish on the Short-term. Second, the Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel is still valid, so Technically I don't have confirmation of a possible Bearish reversal (which will not occur if DX extend the Selling sequence / correction). Most likely, I will get Selling signal early next week, so patience if during current session no Selling signals are delivered. DX is still consolidating and is near local Low’s, as it is counterbalanced by the pullback on Bond Yields. Gold remains High under the circumstances. Price-action continues to consolidate on the Hourly 1 chart’s basis. However, Gold broke the last barrier of #1,882.80 on Spot prices, confirming the last downside wave towards the multi-Month Weekly Support Zone. It is Highly unfair how Gold is gaining with every Hourly 1 chart's candle with mild correction on DX, while recent multi-Month High's on DX made Gold decline but not as strong as it was expected. Daily and Hourly charts turned Bearish again but based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel since April #19, it is safer to Sell after every red Daily chart's candle (those were on November #4, December #9 and January #13 fractal). The DX is on critical crossroads and should stay above #102.50, as that is likely to have strong effect on Gold in the coming sessions. Technically, both on Oscillators and Candlesticks, Gold should lose value with every Hourly candle minimum to #1,852.80 barrier. Next Trading week's Price-action is packed with macro-economic factors so expect High Volatility, especially on current important Short-term crossroads. If #1,923.80 breaks, it will be quick spike towards #1,927.80 - #1,931.80, while #1,906.80 break (and market closing below, indicates #1,892.80 test and Selling in succession).
My position: I have managed to minimize my loss throughout yesterday's session, awaiting full oscillation towards #1,852.80 psychological barrier. Firstly, I have engaged Selling order with #1,886.80 as an entry point, and as it delivered no firm results (even though DX was skyrocketing and was expected to add heavy Selling pressure on Gold), I have closed it and awaited next decent chance to re-Sell Higher. I have engaged new Selling order on #1,890.80 on late U.S. session, and as once again Gold was whatnot stationary, I have closed that order with minimum loss and remained without the order for the session. Since Buying is strongly limited, I don't have any interests in Buying Gold on both Short and Medium-term, so I will await the chance to re-Sell Gold towards #1,892.80 configuration. Most likely, such opportunity will not arise throughout today's session as I will take early weekend break, Highly satisfied with my Trading results for current cycle.
Technical analysis: #2 important things on early E.U. opening. #1st, even though the Price-action broken the Lower High's trendline from #1,890’s earlier, it failed to test and break the #1,923.80 - #1,827.80 Resistance zone, so Technically it is still below Higher High’s Lower zone, just non-linear resemblance. As discussed, as long as the #1,923.80 Resistance Zone holds, Gold is Bearish on the Short-term. Second, the Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel is still valid, so Technically I don't have confirmation of a possible Bearish reversal (which will not occur if DX extend the Selling sequence / correction). Most likely, I will get Selling signal early next week, so patience if during current session no Selling signals are delivered. DX is still consolidating and is near local Low’s, as it is counterbalanced by the pullback on Bond Yields. Gold remains High under the circumstances. Price-action continues to consolidate on the Hourly 1 chart’s basis. However, Gold broke the last barrier of #1,882.80 on Spot prices, confirming the last downside wave towards the multi-Month Weekly Support Zone. It is Highly unfair how Gold is gaining with every Hourly 1 chart's candle with mild correction on DX, while recent multi-Month High's on DX made Gold decline but not as strong as it was expected. Daily and Hourly charts turned Bearish again but based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel since April #19, it is safer to Sell after every red Daily chart's candle (those were on November #4, December #9 and January #13 fractal). The DX is on critical crossroads and should stay above #102.50, as that is likely to have strong effect on Gold in the coming sessions. Technically, both on Oscillators and Candlesticks, Gold should lose value with every Hourly candle minimum to #1,852.80 barrier. Next Trading week's Price-action is packed with macro-economic factors so expect High Volatility, especially on current important Short-term crossroads. If #1,923.80 breaks, it will be quick spike towards #1,927.80 - #1,931.80, while #1,906.80 break (and market closing below, indicates #1,892.80 test and Selling in succession).
My position: I have managed to minimize my loss throughout yesterday's session, awaiting full oscillation towards #1,852.80 psychological barrier. Firstly, I have engaged Selling order with #1,886.80 as an entry point, and as it delivered no firm results (even though DX was skyrocketing and was expected to add heavy Selling pressure on Gold), I have closed it and awaited next decent chance to re-Sell Higher. I have engaged new Selling order on #1,890.80 on late U.S. session, and as once again Gold was whatnot stationary, I have closed that order with minimum loss and remained without the order for the session. Since Buying is strongly limited, I don't have any interests in Buying Gold on both Short and Medium-term, so I will await the chance to re-Sell Gold towards #1,892.80 configuration. Most likely, such opportunity will not arise throughout today's session as I will take early weekend break, Highly satisfied with my Trading results for current cycle.
- My official and only Telegram Channel: t.me/goldenBear88
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
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