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Spot gold has continued its recent strong pattern. The dual drive of geopolitical risks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations has pushed gold prices to a record high. The sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East - Israel's air strikes on Gaza killed more than 400 people, and the Trump administration's remarks on the implementation of new tariffs on April 2 have exacerbated the market's risk aversion.
Federal Reserve policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations
Although the market expects that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged, the focus is on the following three points:
Dot plot adjustment: If the expectation of interest rate cuts in June and July is further strengthened, the US dollar will be under pressure;
Economic forecast: Revisions to inflation and employment data will affect the market's expectations of a "soft landing";
Powell stated: Any hint of a "preventive interest rate cut" may trigger a gold breakthrough.
The Fed's decision sets the tone
Dovish scenario: If the dot plot confirms three rate cuts this year and Powell mentions "economic downside risks", the US dollar may fall below key support, pushing gold prices above $3,050 and challenging the 3,100 integer mark.
Hawkish surprise: If the Fed downplays the need for rate cuts, a rebound in the US dollar may cause gold prices to fall back to the 2,992-3,015 support band in the short term, but the geopolitical risk premium will limit the decline. Before the trend is clearly reversed, it is still a reasonable choice to maintain a short-term strategy of "buy on pullback".
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✔Copy accurate trading signals✔Manage accounts🎁Stable profit of more than 188.6% per week🎁Success rate is as high as 97.85%, real-time communication: @cryptoanalyst_baker Signal entry: t.me/FcCygjylf
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.