Overview:
This 1-hour chart on XAUUSD highlights a clear 5-wave Elliott impulse, confirmed with Fibonacci extensions and the Awesome Oscillator (AO). Current structure suggests Wave (5) is in play, offering a high-probability short opportunity from the Wave (4) retracement zone.
🧠 Elliott Wave Count:
Wave (1): Initial bearish leg
Wave (2): Minor corrective pullback
Wave (3): Strong impulse confirmed by AO convergence
Wave (4): Corrective structure that respects the top of Wave (1) — valid Elliott structure
Wave (5): Now in progress, supported by AO divergence → momentum weakening
📌 Note: Wave 1 and Wave 3 are commonly measured using AO convergence, validating the strength of the impulse waves. Conversely, Wave 5 is often identified by AO divergence, signaling trend exhaustion.
📐 Fibonacci Extension Targets (Measured from Wave 4):
Expected zone for Wave (5) termination:
1.618 Fib: $3,312.17
2.618 Fib: $3,280.25 (most common)
4.236 Fib: $3,255.05
4.886 Fib: $3,241.30 (extreme extension)
📉 Wave (5) often terminates at 2.618 or 4.236 Fibonacci levels, especially when supported by AO divergence.
📊 AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights:
✅ Wave (1) to (3): Clear convergence validates impulse
🚨 Wave (5): AO showing divergence = weakening sell momentum
Confirms Wave (5) status and end-stage trend behavior
🛠️ 🔴 Short-Only Strategy: Trade Wave (5) From Wave (4)
Entry Criteria:
Short initiated near the Wave (4) zone (~$3,330–$3,347)
Strong rejection candle (e.g., engulfing, pin bar) or breakdown confirmation
AO turning from green to red or histogram weakening
Stop Loss:
Above Wave (4) high = ~$3,347
Take Profit Levels:
🎯 TP1: $3,312 (1.618 Fib)
🎯 TP2: $3,280 (2.618 Fib)
🎯 TP3: $3,255 (4.236 Fib)
🎯 TP4 (optional final target): $3,241 (4.886 Fib)
Risk Management Tip: Adjust position sizing to align with stop above Wave (4) and TP zones at Fib targets.
🧩 Final Thoughts:
✅ High-probability bearish structure from Wave (4)
🚫 No bullish setups considered — focus is only on shorting Wave (5)
🔍 AO confirms both impulse strength and trend exhaustion via convergence/divergence
📐 Fibs align with standard Wave (5) projections
📈 Chart Context:
Gold (XAUUSD) – 1H timeframe
Indicators: Elliott Wave, AO, Fibonacci
Analysis Date: 10 May 2025
Bias: Bearish only
This 1-hour chart on XAUUSD highlights a clear 5-wave Elliott impulse, confirmed with Fibonacci extensions and the Awesome Oscillator (AO). Current structure suggests Wave (5) is in play, offering a high-probability short opportunity from the Wave (4) retracement zone.
🧠 Elliott Wave Count:
Wave (1): Initial bearish leg
Wave (2): Minor corrective pullback
Wave (3): Strong impulse confirmed by AO convergence
Wave (4): Corrective structure that respects the top of Wave (1) — valid Elliott structure
Wave (5): Now in progress, supported by AO divergence → momentum weakening
📌 Note: Wave 1 and Wave 3 are commonly measured using AO convergence, validating the strength of the impulse waves. Conversely, Wave 5 is often identified by AO divergence, signaling trend exhaustion.
📐 Fibonacci Extension Targets (Measured from Wave 4):
Expected zone for Wave (5) termination:
1.618 Fib: $3,312.17
2.618 Fib: $3,280.25 (most common)
4.236 Fib: $3,255.05
4.886 Fib: $3,241.30 (extreme extension)
📉 Wave (5) often terminates at 2.618 or 4.236 Fibonacci levels, especially when supported by AO divergence.
📊 AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights:
✅ Wave (1) to (3): Clear convergence validates impulse
🚨 Wave (5): AO showing divergence = weakening sell momentum
Confirms Wave (5) status and end-stage trend behavior
🛠️ 🔴 Short-Only Strategy: Trade Wave (5) From Wave (4)
Entry Criteria:
Short initiated near the Wave (4) zone (~$3,330–$3,347)
Strong rejection candle (e.g., engulfing, pin bar) or breakdown confirmation
AO turning from green to red or histogram weakening
Stop Loss:
Above Wave (4) high = ~$3,347
Take Profit Levels:
🎯 TP1: $3,312 (1.618 Fib)
🎯 TP2: $3,280 (2.618 Fib)
🎯 TP3: $3,255 (4.236 Fib)
🎯 TP4 (optional final target): $3,241 (4.886 Fib)
Risk Management Tip: Adjust position sizing to align with stop above Wave (4) and TP zones at Fib targets.
🧩 Final Thoughts:
✅ High-probability bearish structure from Wave (4)
🚫 No bullish setups considered — focus is only on shorting Wave (5)
🔍 AO confirms both impulse strength and trend exhaustion via convergence/divergence
📐 Fibs align with standard Wave (5) projections
📈 Chart Context:
Gold (XAUUSD) – 1H timeframe
Indicators: Elliott Wave, AO, Fibonacci
Analysis Date: 10 May 2025
Bias: Bearish only
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.