Possible GOLD XAUUSD Short Trade
Possible Short Setup:
1) 4 hour and Daily showing a shift in momentum with momentum moves to the downside and a possible initiation for a shift in trend (Creation of Wave 0-1 and 1-2) With wave 2 rejecting so far off the 61.8% Fibonacci, being a common spot for wave 2 to end.
2) I have a possible wedge pattern drawn, being a triangle like pattern with price that ended on the 61.8% also coinciding with an ABCDE pattern, with price rejecting off point E, being the the end of Wave 1-2 and the beginning of wave 2-3.
3) As price drops from that point, it wicks off the (Secondary Blue Trendline), it might come back up to re-test at a 61.8% or higher before it finally drops, otherwise i am wrong with this setup at this point in time and price is travelling back up as a touch off the bottom trendline/Channel. Please adhere to risk management and trade a MAXIMUM of 2% per trade.
4) Now, as stated (i will provide closer up photos), price could come back up to re-test that secondary trendline or drop from the point it's at right now. When looking in closer, i see that a smaller triangle as formed and could be a possible dropping point here. To confirm this, price will have to drop below the more primary trendline drawn to create the wedge. And even more confirmation if it drops below the most bottom point/trendline of the channel.
Keep in mind that if this setup is wrong then we will wait for the next step up to occur.
I am waiting for this lower low to be created as there was a potential lower high that was created. However since the lower low has not been created, price still has the potential to continue going higher to create a higher high.
1) 4 hour and Daily showing a shift in momentum with momentum moves to the downside and a possible initiation for a shift in trend (Creation of Wave 0-1 and 1-2) With wave 2 rejecting so far off the 61.8% Fibonacci, being a common spot for wave 2 to end.
2) I have a possible wedge pattern drawn, being a triangle like pattern with price that ended on the 61.8% also coinciding with an ABCDE pattern, with price rejecting off point E, being the the end of Wave 1-2 and the beginning of wave 2-3.
3) As price drops from that point, it wicks off the (Secondary Blue Trendline), it might come back up to re-test at a 61.8% or higher before it finally drops, otherwise i am wrong with this setup at this point in time and price is travelling back up as a touch off the bottom trendline/Channel. Please adhere to risk management and trade a MAXIMUM of 2% per trade.
4) Now, as stated (i will provide closer up photos), price could come back up to re-test that secondary trendline or drop from the point it's at right now. When looking in closer, i see that a smaller triangle as formed and could be a possible dropping point here. To confirm this, price will have to drop below the more primary trendline drawn to create the wedge. And even more confirmation if it drops below the most bottom point/trendline of the channel.
Keep in mind that if this setup is wrong then we will wait for the next step up to occur.
I am waiting for this lower low to be created as there was a potential lower high that was created. However since the lower low has not been created, price still has the potential to continue going higher to create a higher high.
Note
1 hour, closer view.
As stated, for this possible short setup it could do the following:
1. Drop here off the completion of the smaller triangle formation.
2. If price/the market decides that it's not the right time then it could retest the blue trendline and climb higher up on the Fibonacci for a retracement to the downside.
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4 hour view
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On that 4 hour view, there is a strong possibility that price can simultaneously retest the blue secondary trendline and the black trendline, creating 3 strong points of contact on the black trendline and at least a 2nd re-test on the blue secondary trendline.Giving a strong indication for a drop off of this point.
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By the way i want to apologise if my charts (especially the first one) comes off as messy. This is my first publish and I will try to be neater with my mark ups in the future for you all. :)Note
Beginning to reject off the E point. Coincides with the 1 hour, red downward sloping, down-trending trend-line.
if price breaks up above this line then this is invalid and the next setup could be the higher end of the red trendline of this smaller triangle.
Possible short setup with tight stop loss. 3 spots for the stop loss:
1. VERY TIGHT(highest chance of getting stopped out): Just above the small E point wick of the smaller triangle.
2. TIGHT (moderate chance of being stopped out) Just above the A point wick of the smaller triangle.
3. Widest stop loss (lowest change of being stopped out, however if i'm wrong with this Short play then you will get stopped out): Just above the larger E point of the large wedge, however i PERSONALLY wouldn't put the stop loss here yet unless price comes back up more.
You can if you want to increase your chance of not being stopped out.
****PLEASE keep in mind, 2 % MAXIMUM risk per trade. Nothing more, over leverage your account, you don't want to blow it. PRESERVE it. FOCUS on your risk and the rewards will come.
Note
Possible E point end around this vicinity of the shaded area
Trade active
Short.
VERY tight stop loss above the wick of point E.
Place STRICT and DISCIPLINED Risk Management!! (1-2% MAXIMUM per trade)
Note
Went down about 20-35 pips from E point highlighted. We want price to drop below these two bottom trendlines to confirm the continuation of a drop/short.
HOLD ONTO YOUR PANTS.
Depending on where you entered,
1. Keep stop loss above E point wick.
2. Lower stop loss down above the body if you wish to minimise risk further.
3. Place your stop loss as a stop profit, about 1-2 pips below entry price.
Happy Trading if it continues dropping :)
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Blue trendline created. 3 points of contact. Adding to this high probable trade set up.Trade active
Tap off the bottom of the triangle. Let's see how price reacts..
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Trade active
Triangle took more time to play out, hence a larger triangle. New ABCDE points made. Drop at Point E.
Waiting for price to break under the channels/trendlines underneath for a continuation of a downtrend.
Trade active
Short trade active.
Stop Loss to Stop Profit for a risk free trade!
HOLD. I see a long-term short.
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Trade active
1. Waiting for Price to break through the neckline of this Head & Shoulders pattern for a continuation of the short and lower lows.
2. Estimated minimum target length (Red line) if neckline broken.
3. I have also stated in my analysis from yesterday (see link here tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/OsdZdvOM-Possible-GOLD-XAUUSD-Short-Trade/)
that i believe that we are in Wave 2-3 now. Hence i have also drew up a Fibonacci for price targets of the end of wave 3.
4. I personally believe that we will see a break through the bottom of this LARGE triangle. I believe we just ended WAVE B of a larger ABC correction on Gold and have just begun WAVE C through a completion of WAVE B. With Wave C we will most likely see an impulse 5 wave sequence or diagonal.
I am personally going to hold this short position.
Please check out my link from yesterday to follow the full analysis (I will provide larger weekly analysis soon).
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Trade active
Short still active. I have moved my stop losses into stop profits and have scaled into my position. Remember to keep to strict risk management. (1-2% risk per trade)
1. Price is piercing through the dotted trend line. - Holding my position.
2. Am looking for price to break down and eventually attempt breaking below the Head & Shoulders neckline for a further move down.
Stay tuned.
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300 pips in profit! Take profits or HOLD the ship. I believe we are in wave 3!
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1.Take your profits now or 2. At 1285 or
3. HOLD on tight to the handrails while we navigate through this sea storm! I believe we are in the midst of WAVE 3 right now. Make sure you've set your stop profits and locked in some profits.
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REMEMBER: Strict RISK MANAGEMENT (1-2% max per trade).
Set your stop loss to stop PROFIT - Risk free and let it run. I am scaling in as we go, while adhering to risk management.
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Trade active
Possible short continuation at this point.
Trade active
Note
Readjustment.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.